Pittsburgh Steelers

Division: AFC North Record: 9-8 (3-3 Division), 3rd place AFC North Playoffs: Never rely on Joe Flacco to get you in.
General Season Review
The 2022 Steelers season was seen largely as a rebuilding year. No Ben. TJ missing a lot of time. OL not really a work of art. Offensively there are only 3 starters on their 2nd contracts, so the team is very young there. The Front seven on defense was/is severely lacking depth behind TJ, Cam, and Highsmith. The DBs outside of Minkah and Edmunds were largely unknowns, gambles, or value signings. Nothing about this team screamed “playoff chances until the last second of the season”. But that’s exactly how it went. They were alive until the clock struck zero on Jets-Dolphins in Week 18.
Mitchell Trubisky won the starting QB job out of camp, and as the veteran with the most starting experience on the roster, that makes sense. He was the safe choice. The staff has seen what they get with Mason. KP was a rook and you don’t want to shellshock him too soon. But you know what you get with a QB like Mitch. An uninspired offense that doesn’t move the ball quickly at all. Once KP arrived at half in Week 4 vs the Jets, the team was his. Sure the box score doesn’t look all that different. But if you have a choice between a vet who doesn’t do much, and a rookie who at least looks the same and improving? Take the upside.
KP improved every week and limited his mistakes. He ended up taking more control of the offense and had 4 fourth quarter comebacks/game winning drives, in weeks 9, 11, 15, and 16. Talk about improvement.
But the team still started 2-6. Finished 7-3 to go 9-8. Missed the playoffs. Nobody is “happy” with this year, but given the situation, it wasn’t a bad season. Lots to love about this year. Some nice role players stuck out, the stars did what they do, and the franchise’s future showed lots of good things.
Draft, Free Agency, and Trades:
Draft:

• Round 1, Pick 20 overall: Kenneth Shane Pickett, QB, Pitt: AKA “Kenny Fucking Pickett” AKA “THE PICKLER” AKA “BIG KEN” AKA “DADDY”.
  
• Round 2, Pick 52 overall: George Pickens, WR, Georgia: “He’s a quality young man.” – Mike Tomlin
  
• Round 3, Pick 84 overall: DeMarvin Leal, DL, Texas A&M
  
• Round 4, Pick 138 overall: Calvin Austin III, being fast, Memphis
  
• Round 6, Pick 208 overall: Connor Heyward, TE, Mich. St.
  
• Round 6, Pick 198: Mark Robinson, ILB, Ole Miss
  
• Round 7, Pick 232: Chris Oladokun, QB, South Dakota St.
  

Free Agency:

• James Daniels, RG, Bears: $26.5mm/3 yrs, $8.75mm gtd
  
• Myles Jack, LB, Jags: $16mm/2 yrs, $6.5mm gtd
  
• Gunner Olszewski, RS, Patriots: $4.2mm/2 yrs, $1.6mm gtd
  
• Levi Wallace, CB, Bills: $8mm/2 yrs, $2.97mm gtd
  
• Mason Cole, C, Vikes: $15.75mm/3 yrs, $4.57mm gtd
  
• Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bills: $14.29mm/2 yrs, $5.25mm gtd (up to $27m total w/ incentives)
  

Midseason Trade:

• August 30, 2022: Traded a conditional 2025 pick (7th round) to Vikings for OT, Jesse Davis
  
• August 30, 2022: Traded a 2023 6th round pick to Broncos for OLB, Malik Reed and a 2023 7th round pick
  
• November 1, 2022: Traded Chase Claypool to Bears for a 2023 2nd round pick (32nd overall, thanks Stephen Ross).
  
• November 1, 2022: Traded a conditional 2025 pick (6th round) to Commanders for William Jackson III and a conditional 2025 pick (7th round).
  

* no conditions satisfied with WJ3 hitting IR like 2 weeks after arriving, Washington basically flew him to the Steelers.
Stats: per pfr and football outsiders

Offensive Stats:

Stat	Value	Per Game	Lg. Rank
Total Yds	5484	322.58	26th
1st Downs	345	20.29	15th
Total Passing Yds	3411	200.64	24th
Total Rush Yds	2073	121.94	16th
Pts Scored	308	18.12 (ouch)	26th
TDs Scored (Pass)	28 (12)	1.64 (.71)	29th 🥲
Turnovers (INTs)	19 (14)	1.11 (.82)	4th (17th)
DVOA	-0.3%	n/a	18th
DVOA after BYE	6.6%	n/a	10th

Defensive Stats:

Stat	Value	Per Game	Lg. Rank
Yds Allowed	5617	330.41	13th
1st Downs	314	18.47	5th
Total Passing Yds	3779	222.29	19th
Total Rush Yds	1838	108.12	9th
Pts Scored	346	20.35	10th
Turnovers (INTs)	23 (20)	1.35 (1.18)	14th (1st)
DVOA	-3.5%	n/a	12th
DVOA after BYE	-14.6%	n/a	4th

Weekly Game Review:
Week 1, @ Bengos: WHAT A WIN. WHAT A WIN. Okay, so I was at this game (6-0 all time baybayyyy) and felt gross after. An injured long snapper being the difference maker is crazy. Oh and Minkah going completely fucking super saiyan on the kitties from Eastern Kentucky Ohio. 14 tackles. 10 solo. 1 INT/TD. AND A BLOCKED XP TO SEND IT TO OVERTIME. Boy went crazy. Mike T started the game by stuffing everyones lockers with blacked out Air Force 1s, and Minkah brought that energy. Ja’Marr Chase felt it too when he gave Mink the bird and got 15 yards for it hahahahahahahahahaha.
Mitch Trubisky sucks at football.
Side note: Cincy fans, your city is known for its god awful chili/meat sauce/who cares what its called. But PBS serves the fucking Walmart brand of it in stadium?? What’s up w that??
Week 2, vs. Patriots: First week of seven without TJ 🥲. Bill Belichick activated sleeper agent Gunner O to fumble that punt in the third quarter and then the Patriots scored.
Mitch Trubisky sucks at football.
Week 3, @ Brownies: Jacoby “Big Brisket” Brissett sliced and diced the defense to hand the Steelers this L. Best Browns QB on the roster, hands down.
Mitch Trubisky sucks at football.
Week 4, vs. Jets: Major distractions from WRs who weren’t getting the ball and QBs fucking moms should allow the Steelers defense to take over and win this one pretty handily right? Nope. Wanna know why? Because:
Mitch Trubisky sucks at football.
Subbed at half. ITS TIME FOR THE PICKLER TO SHINE. No? Maybe next week in Buffalo.
Week 5, @ Bills: Ron Howard: “He did not shine in Buffalo the next week.”
Week 6, vs. Bucs: Kenny got slapped in the head and left the game in the 3rd. But guess what?? MITCH TRUBISKY DOESN’T SUCK AT FOOTBALL AND HE BEAT TOM BRADY AND THE BUCS.
Week 7, @ Fins: This SNF game was honestly not bad despite the box score. Despite the L there was a lot of positive to take from Kenny and his growth, which is what mattered most this year.
Week 8, @ Eagles: I don’t wanna talk about it.
Week 9, @ UPMC Rooney Sports Complex: This is around the time the reports that KP8 had an “office” at the team facility to grind extra tape. Turns out it’s just a desk in the team room. Sorry Russ haters, not this time.
LIVE IMAGE OF KENNY WORKING IN HIS OFFICE
Week 10, vs. Saints: Ho hum. Steelers beating Andy Dalton. What’s new? TJ back after missing weeks 2-8 and healthy-ish. Najee finally gets kickin and the offense with it. Not a world beater, but better all around.
Week 11, vs. Bengals: 🚨🚨 30 POINT OFFENSIVE EFFORT ALERT 🚨🚨 But the Bengos transformed to the Dark Bengos over their bye. And Dark Bengo must have his sacrifice. Top 5 Uni matchup on the year too hands down. White (inbred) Bengo vs Blacked Out Block Letters. Chefs Kiss.
Week 12, @ Colts: Steelers love beating the Colts. I don’t know what it is about them, but there’s blood in the water. My logic is Indiana is next to Ohio. Steelers hate and historically own Ohio teams. Indy by nature of being near Ohio is basically Ohio. So, the team just treats them like they do any other Ohio team.
Week 13, @ Falcons: The coolest part of this game was the similarities of Connor Heywards first NFL touchdown and his father’s first NFL receiving TD.
Week 14, vs. Ravens: KP got hurt on like the 8th play of the game bc he came down with whatever disability Tua has that doesn’t allow them to properly go down when being tackled. I don’t know if it’s the body weight sack rules, QBs not knowing how to fall, or the spinning twist tackles, something’s gotta change.
Mitch Trubisky sucks at football.
Week 15, @ Panthers: This was a win but it certainly wasn’t because Mitch Trubisky is *good* at football. The Panthers had 21 rushing yards. Even for pass heavy teams that’s bad. So when The Darnold is your QB, you’re gonna suffer.
I mean uhhh the RIGGED NFL STOLE this game from the GEQBUS.
Week 16, vs. Raiders: A lot of us Steelers fans were nervous for this game. The Raiders have been a thorn in Coach Ts side for years. He was 2-5 entering this game against them. But we weren’t gonna let that ruin the Immaculate Reception 50th anniversary game. Especially after Franco passed. And in 1972 football fashion, the Steelers won a 13-10 barn burner on a TD pass from KP to GP with :46 on the clock. And then Sutton made that sealing diving INT. Merry Christmas Yinz.
Week 17, @ Ravens: Naj delivers his first 100 yard performance of the year. TJ Watt says this is the first time all year he’s been injury free. Mitch Trubisky is not allowed to suck at football. Life is good.
Week 18, vs. Browns: All the team had to do is win against a division opponent, and pray to god the Bills don’t phone it in against the Patriots. Oh and rely on Joe Flacco to beat the Fins. Never rely on flacco for anything.
Overall Record: 9-8
High Points:

• Week One was a great surprise after the Bengals trounced the Steelers for all of 2021.
  
• Kenny’s weekly improvements, especially after the bye.
  
• Every time George Pickens did something batshit insane on the field.
  
• Every time Minkah Fitzpatrick did something batshit insane on the field.
  
• The Immaculate Reception game was a great Christmas gift.
  

Low Points

• Every snap of Mitchell Trubisky playing football minus the Buccaneers game.
  
• Losing to the Zach Wilson led Jets.
  
• ILB play all season was a nothing burger.
  
• Chris Boswell’s Groin 2: Electric Boogaloo (sequel to the 2018 original).
  

Low Points for Yinzers

• Every day that Mike Tomlin and Matt Canada aren’t fired by the Stillers.
  
• Any time they think about drafting Najee and Friermuth over Creed Humphrey and Landon Dickerson.
  
• Every day before November 1, 2023.
  
• Any time they think about the Jags loss in the divisional round in 2017.
  
• Any time Jaylen Warren didn’t get 20 carries if Najee was having a bad game.
  

High Points for Yinzers

• November 1, 2023.

Overall Roster Review:

All-Pros:

• Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, (1st Team): I don’t think I need to say anything here. Dudes a fucking baller. We love him here.
  
• Cam Heyward was snubbed of 2nd team All-Pro.
  

Pro Bowl Selections:

• TJ (lol) and Minkah

Position Group Reviews:

QB: This is why everyone is here. To read about Mitchell Trubisky. Who sucks at football. He is the definition of a “he can change for me” signing. Uninspiring, not the reason those Bears teams won, and definitely the reason some of these games were lost this year.
But the real reason we all are here. Kenny Fucking Pickett. The box score is not favorable here. Look a little deeper in the stats. 2nd best deep ball passer this year!! Crazy. Watch the games. Watch him progress each game. Not making the same mistake twice. 11 turnovers in his first 5 games. 2 in his last 8 games, which came after the bye. Boy was IN THE LAB. Three 4th quarter comebacks and 4 game winning drives. He may not be on the same trajectory of that young class of elite game changing QBs like Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, or Herbie. But he good. Oh he goooood. And that flow?? Nothing can stop THE PICKLER.
RB: Naj started the year slow and never really kicked off in a major way. He had a Lisfranc injury from camp that had him wearing a metal plate in his foot until Week 6. But he was still solid on a relatively mediocre offense.
The real news of this group is Jaylen Warren. UDFA from Ok. St. Had to compete with 3 other RBs in camp. Coach T likes to say “2 dogs, 1 bone.” Well Jaylen is the dog with that bone in his mou--- actually not gonna finish that one.
WR: Yinzers will focus on the fact that Diontae Johnson had 86 catches and no TDs. Which is objectively bad. But let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater on DJ. Pretty much every route he ran was a sideline route, comeback, curl, or something else that yields little to no YAC. He yet again had a great year separating from DBs better than anyone in the NFL. He also continues to show that he never really earned the name Diontae Dropson with his 4.8% drop rate which ranks 75th among pass catchers in the nfl.
Pickens just made highlight after highlight this year. He’s a freak. But he suffered from a somewhat limited route tree this year same as Diontae.
Steven Sims was a nice surprise out of camp this year too. Reliable returner mostly, solid in the slot. Carving out a nice role in the offense for himself.
Everyone else here is a body (Boykin, Cody White, Gunner) or injured (Calvin Austin III).
TE: Muth is about as reliable as it gets. Best YAC on the team at the moment. Fights for yards. Had a solid year and looks to continue his growth in year 3.
Zach Gentry was just a body in his first two years in Pittsburgh. Albeit he’s just a 6’8” 270 lb body. But the last two years he’s been a reliable and improved blocker, as well as a solid 15-20 catch type of target. Not gonna light it up, but definitely worth a roster spot.
Connor Heyward was not drafted because he’s Cam’s brother! He’s a solid H-Back type that was used in a lot of different ways this year. Really big fan. He may never be a top end player, but has long time beloved role player written all over him.
OT: Chuks Okorafor continues to be underrated. He plays the less glorified OT spot and isn’t a top 5 in the league, so he must be trash right? Nope. Dude is solid. Worth the extension last spring/summer.
Dan Moore Jr. (DMJ) in year two was about the same as year 1. A big bodied, athletic, raw, and not great LT. He’s gonna get a third year to start, maybe with a camp competition body. Yinzers are sick of him and want a high profile turnstile like Orlando Brown Jr. to replace him. I say wait for year 3.
iOL: James Daniels was the big signing of the year for the Steelers, and despite a rough start he was really solid. Definitely the best OL of the year for the team, but nobody was exceptional.
Mason Cole inspired none and played a little better than expected. Tomlin really seems to like him and his communication skills. I think the value he brings may just be stuff us fans don’t see or know since we don’t know the calls.
Kevin Dotson, a fan favorite, lost a lot of fans this year. The left side of the OL was pretty bad overall but there are some who think DMJ may improve with a better running mate at LG. KDot had a good to great rookie year. Oft injured in year 2 and down year 3. He’s probably on his last legs here if something doesn’t change in 2023.
DL: Cam is great, I don’t need to really expand on that.
The rest of the group was interesting to watch. Ogunjobi was nice, especially as a late June add to the roster. I hope he can re-sign in Pittsburgh.
DeMarvin Leal was a tweener coming out of the draft and it showed in his usage. Only ticked up after TJs injury and shuffling of the DL. He was IR’ed for a bit and never really topped 25% snaps in a game but once maybe. He’ll be an interesting developmental piece to watch in 2023.
The rest of the guys did their jobs. Alualu was benched in favor of Montravius Adams. Chris Wormley has been a good rotational guy. Isaiahh Loudermilk made little to no noise this year after a decent rookie year in 2021.
OLB: Everyone likely wants to hear about TJ, but Alex Highsmith gets the first mention here. TJ being out for like half the season called for Highsmith to step up. And he did. 14.5 sacks. A true breakout year and silencing the yinzers who say “just plug anyone opposite TJ and they’ll eat”. He’s in a contract year in 2023 and deserves to be paid. Alex Highsmith was a baller in 2022 and deserves his respect.
TJ was banged up and made didn’t make too much noise this year.
God dammit they need a third EDGE guy to spell TJ/Alex. It’s a bunch of JAGs in that room behind them.
ILB: Speaking of JAGs. Nobody here impressed. People will tell you Mark Robinson made a splash in the Ravens game, to which I respond that he played 26 snaps that game. The ILB group was so mediocre this year I’m not going to expand on any individual past that bit above. Big draft/FA need. Maybe 2x.
CB: Cam Sutton 🥲 was given the outside CB job full time this year basically. And he thriiiived. After being a role player for most of his career thus far, he bet on himself, and is now paid in Detroit. He got to watch Joe Haden play outside for a few seasons and I really think that Steelers era Joe is a good comp for Sutton. Enjoy him Lions fans.
The rest of the group did well enough I guess. Levi was a solid inside outside guy and took the bulk of the CB2 snaps. A bargain at $4m/year. Thanks Commies for really screwing up Buffalo’s plans there. Ahkello Witherspoon greatly cooled down from his 3 INTs in the last 5 games of 2021. He got some time outside and wasn’t great. Not the worst CB in Tomlin’s tenure, definitely not the best.
I also want to take a side note on Arthur Maulet. He’s not a great NCB. But he brings a lot of energy and fire to this team. He apparently got in some peoples faces in the locker room after a 2022 loss that I refuse to talk about. He really seems to value that accountability and brings a level of leadership that is good on an otherwise young team. He’ll never get a mention otherwise, but I think he deserves some love for what he brings.
S: Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Terrell Edmunds continues to show he is steady eddy. He wears a lot of hats for the defense, is always available, and largely a mistake free player. Yinzers still hate him because he’s a first rounder that isn’t an all-pro, but if every first rounder was at least a consistent, career starter, most teams would be fucking loaded.
Damontae Kazee is that third safety Mike Tomlin has been searching for the last few years. Tre Norwood looked like he may be it last year, but Kazee beat him out for the job. He’s a human missile. A violent player. And a full healthy season ahead should do him well amongst the fans.
2023 Draft Picks:

• Round 1, Pick 17 overall
  
• Round 2, Pick 32 overall (From CHI)
  
• Round 2, Pick 49 overall
  
• Round 3, Pick 80 overall
  
• Round 4, Pick 120 overall
  
• Round 7, Pick 236 overall
  
• Round 7, Pick 243 overall (From DEN)
  
• 2023 Cap Space: **$10,409,318 as of posting date***
  

Free Agency/Draft Needs:

• Front Seven needs depth and starters outside of like 3 or 4 guys. So, starting ILB, EDGE3 to spell TJ/Highsmith, and DL/DT since the DL is old with no standout youngsters on the roster.
  
• One starting caliber CB, probably/maybe 2.
  
• OL depth, potential starters. Mostly LG, maybe C. Yinzers will tell you the OTs are dogshit but they’re more mid than they are bad.
  
• WR. Always.
  

Key Free Agents:

Preface: I’m not making predictions on contracts because that’s a useless practice. I know fuck all about what’s going on behind closed doors of NFL offices, so who cares about contract predictions.

Offense:

Oddly, None? I guess Mason Rudolph but HE GONE.

Defense:

• Cameron Sutton, CB: As of writing this, he’s already gone. Thanks Detroit. But I wanted to include his name, because I think highly of him and don’t want to minimize his importance. A good player, maybe never an All-Pro, but a long time starter at the position. We watched him grow from a wee little 3rd rounder just growin’ and learnin’.
  
• Larry Ogunjobi, DL: A must sign in my opinion. Good depth, Cam is not any younger. Add another DE in the draft and the DL is gonna be nice in ’23.
  
• Devin Bush, ILB: He gone.
  
• Terrell Edmunds, S: Another must sign. He does too much for this defense to let him walk.
  
• Chris Wormley, DL: Solid depth. Came from an inter-division trade. Tomlin told him “that shows what they think of you” and he’s been a pretty damn good depth/rotational piece ever since. Would like to have him back, especially with Alualu likely being toast.
  
• Damontae Kazee, S: I think he just needs to come back and play a full season in that 3rd safety role. A full season of expanding on what we saw the last few weeks of the year would be cool and add some wrinkles to this defense.
  

Potential Cap Casualties, Retirements

Offense:

• Mitchell Trubisky, QB: Dude sucks at football. But if he’s cut there’s Kenny and a bunch of dudes who know nothing about this offense. Yes it would save like $8mm but Kenny and a bunch of bodies behind him isn’t ideal. Unlikely.
  
• Gunner Olszewski, RS: Saves only $2mm, but Sims replaced him as a RS. Calvin Austin III should slide into that slot role once healthy. Seems like a mid-summer dump if they draft another WR, which they always do.
  

Defense:

• William Jackson III, CB: Been cut. Saved $12mm. Maybe he’ll be back after testing the waters. Who knows, but he’s such an unknown at this point it doesn’t make a difference.
  
• Myles Jack, ILB: Saves $8mm but leaves Mark Robinson, a rawwww 2ndyear, and Robert Spillane, professional JAG. I think an extension is more likely than a cut. Jack did lead the team in tackles. But nothing exceptional beyond that.
  
• Ahkello Witherspoon, CB: Saves $4mm. He’s a CB3 at best, not really in consideration for the starting spot. Probably survives any cuts til the draft just to be safe.
  
• Tyson Alualu, DT: Probably retiring right? Reneged on a deal with the Jags to stay in Pittsburgh. Hurt. Benched. Free Agent. I just don’t see him signing another contract.
  

Coaching Staff/Front Office review

• Kevin Colbert, GM: KC finished out DRAFT SZN with a bang. Drafted the QB. Got ANOTHER addition to Kevin Colbert’s School of Wide Receivers Who Wide Receive Good. Started a family reunion with the Heywards. A classic Kevin Colbert Draft Special. God Bless that man and all he did for 22 great years of Steelers football.
  
• Omar Khan, GM: Dude got to WORK right away. Active during free agency? Never heard of her. Signed Levi Wallace. Got the DJ deal done. Minkah deal done. Snagged Larry O after he “failed his physical” whatever that means just take the L Bears haha. James Daniels at RG. Boy slinging that money around like it’s not his and it’s on fire. I think all of Steelers fans (Yinzers included) are excited to see what he and Weidl’s approach to FA and the draft is going to be like. More of the same? Same same but different? Who knows, who cares. Let's have fun with it while it’s new.
  
• Mike Tomlin, HC: “Hey Coach T. You’re gonna lose your HOF QB. And your HOF pace OLB is gonna miss 7 games. And you’ll trade away your WR2 by Halloween. Your OL is gonna be shit the first 6 weeks of the season. Your WR1 won’t score a TD all year. Your RB1 is gonna have an injury that kills careers in camp. Don’t do too much winning okay?”
  

\ * Tomlin *: “Haha fuck it we ball.”

• Matt Canada, OC: There are not many kind things to say about his offense. Route concepts are bad. Play diversity is bad. Playcall sequencing seems bad. But a top 10 DVOA offense the last 9 weeks of the season? He at least earned a chance to play out his contract.
  
• Teryl Austin, DC: His first year as DC but 4th overall with the team. The defense clearly suffered without TJ for 7 weeks, but overall they were a good unit on the year. Sutton played well and earned his Detroit contract. Minkah is a baller. Levi Wallace is great value. The DBs overall really are just so much better than they’ve been since like 2011-2017 and Teryl Austin deserves a nod for that alone.
  

Final Thoughts

Draft and free agency are looming. It’s exciting. New GM/AGM, new QB. Tomlin does what he does. There’s a lot of things to be excited about as a Steeler’s fan for the foreseeable future.
Kenny is the focus of the team now. Everything done should be done in furtherance of his development as the Pittsburgh Steelers franchise QB. Better Defense to support him on his bad days. Better OL to keep him upright. Better skill guys to make his life easier. It’s all for him. As it should be. If he’s right, the teams right.
Go Steelers.

[Part 1- Passing Game] <--- You are here
[Part 2- Rushing and Special Teams]
[Part 3- Defense and Non-QB Offense]
[Part 4- QBs and Team Quadrant Charts]
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It's that time of year when the vast majority of us start to hit those sweet copium reserves once again. I thought I'd put something together so that people can at least have the choice of making data-driven arguments before just resorting to name calling and downvoting anyways.
Most of the data that was used was from the regular season, but I used regular season+playoffs anywhere I could find it. Z-Scores are all measured against the average of ALL NFL Teams. Restricted the plots to playoff teams because I already spent two three weeks of lunch-breaks just for these 14 teams. Z-Scores exclusively use team/positional group data (this also applies to QB groups) due to the complicating fact that individual world-class athletes are also humans with sensory organs and brains that process all of the horrible things people say about them online. If you're looking to dunk on specific players, this isn't really the right data to do so.
Receivers include any WTE/RB with at least 48 targets (criteria used by 538/ESPN). Tried to account for QBs as much as possible so that each QB group's impact can be estimated later on.
Credit to u/dvd5671 for the idea to use team logos as data points.
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All receiver z-scores are QB-Compensated by ESPN Analytics
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https://preview.redd.it/v0evcykptnia1.jpg?width=1366&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e9d2123b904414097573b190e2556802c86bc8f7
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https://preview.redd.it/6e33rb8qtnia1.jpg?width=1366&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b29d213ea65ebb1ca119fbe2dbd76609e3d558cd
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https://preview.redd.it/aahuslxqtnia1.jpg?width=1366&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6adebb2de0349ee4a5796af57fc22793985e25f3
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Pass protection z-scores derived from [Pocket Time / Pressure Rate]
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https://preview.redd.it/tmxnebvrtnia1.jpg?width=1366&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ca281c30aa4d451c65a6fe2e84aa4bcf44960a7b
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https://preview.redd.it/xvv5qu6stnia1.jpg?width=1366&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25234e0b95f1f6ac237d2afc6cb3594c777d4404
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Non-QB pass game z-score = .5*[Pass Pro] + .5*[Rec Score (Overall)]
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Data	Source	Link
QB-Comp Rec (Overall), QB-Comp Rec (Open), QB-Comp Rec (Catch), QB-Comp Rec (YAC)	fivethirtyeight (ESPN Analytics)	Link
Pass Attempts (Team) *Used in the background of this analysis. Used outright in subsequent analyses.	NFL Stats	Link
Pocket Time, Pressure Rate	Pro Football Reference	Link

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Hi Statheads!
Inspired by the creators nflscrapR and nflfastR I decided to construct nflscraPy, a collection of functions to scrape NFL Data from Pro Football Reference – and hopefully an expanding number of data sources/sets.
As of now you can use nflscraPy to ingest:

• Season Scores
• Metadata
• Basic Statistics
• Expected Points
• Scoring Events
• Active Roster
• Snap Counts & Pcts
• Season Splits
• Historic ELO data via FiveThirtyEight

To be respectful of PFR’s servers and for those not yet comfortable with Python, Historic CSV Datasets for these categories can be downloaded in the releases – updated weekly.
Feel free to message me or comment any questions or feedback you have regarding nflscraPy – I would also love to hear what other PFR datasets you might be interested in and see if I can add them to the functionality mix.

I posted this Monday prior to BUF-CIN and have now updated the sheet with all the scenarios for the AFC, including potential outcomes for BUF vs. CIN (Bills win, Bengals win, no contest/tie).
There are also tabs with win probabilities from fivethirtyeight.com to find the "most likely" scenarios.
To make filters, hit "data," "filter views," and "create new temporary filter view."
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KTUZlPXhhth0rJYQQhrxGbfEwAfq8SLLwAgECQW3KGI/edit#gid=1605084409

	Team	SN	Y!	B/R	CBS	USA	NFL	ESPN		Avg	SD	538	CGPR
1	Kansas City	1	4		2	2		1		2.0	1.2	1	5
2	Buffalo	3	3		1	4		2		2.6	1.1	2	1
3	San Francisco	2	2		3	3		3		2.6	0.5	5	3
4	Philadelphia	4	1		4	5		5		3.8	1.6	3	6
5	Cincinnati	6	6		5	1		6		4.8	2.2	6	2
6	Dallas	5	5		6	6		4		5.2	0.8	4	4
7	LA Chargers	7	8		8	8		7		7.6	0.5	9	11
8	Minnesota	8	7		7	10		8		8.0	1.2	7	9
9	Baltimore	10	11		9	9		10		9.8	0.8	8	8
10	Jacksonville	11	9		11	7		11		9.8	1.8	10	10
11	NY Giants	9	13		10	12		9		10.6	1.8	13	14
12	Detroit	13	12		15	11		13		12.8	1.5	14	7
13	Green Bay	14	10		16	13		12		13.0	2.2	12	12
14	Miami	17	15		12	17		15		15.2	2.0	16	22
15	New England	16	14		18	14		14		15.2	1.8	15	17
16	Tampa Bay	12	18		14	16		17		15.4	2.4	11	16
17	Pittsburgh	18	16		17	15		16		16.4	1.1	17	13
18	Seattle	15	17		13	20		18		16.6	2.7	18	19
19	Tennessee	22	19		20	23		19		20.6	1.8	19	27
20	New Orleans	19	23		22	19		22		21.0	1.9	21	18
21	Cleveland	20	21		23	22		20		21.2	1.3	20	15
22	Washington	21	22		19	24		21		21.4	1.8	24	21
23	NY Jets	23	20		21	21		23		21.6	1.3	26	24
24	Carolina	25	25		24	18		24		23.2	2.9	22	20
25	Las Vegas	24	24		25	26		25		24.8	0.8	25	23
26	Atlanta	26	26		26	27		26		26.2	0.4	31	26
27	LA Rams	27	27		29	25		27		27.0	1.4	23	25
28	Arizona	30	29		27	31		29		29.2	1.5	30	29
29	Denver	28	28		30	30		30		29.2	1.1	28	28
30	Chicago	31	30		31	28		28		29.6	1.5	29	32
31	Indianapolis	29	31		28	29		31		29.6	1.3	27	30
32	Houston	32	32		32	32		32		32.0	0.0	32	31

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Seen this discussed a few times and believe we can source the correct answer.
Quick context: seen a lot of discussions about how Slayton has been great at creating separation this year. Most of these reference the new advanced stat “Open score” where Slayton was near the top at one point (now around 30th) source:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/
However, this seems to take into account scheming/routes as well? When digging into finding actual yards of separation, most sites keep that behind the paywall, but I was able to find big blue view referencing this around the time he was near the top of the “open score” :
“He still isn’t a great separating receiver and his 2.3 yards of separation is still the seventh-worst in the NFL. However, the combination of route selection and route design has helped Slayton get the second-highest “Open” score in ESPN’s new Receiver Tracking Metric.”
Source : https://www.bigblueview.com/platform/amp/2022/11/23/23473869/2022-ny-giants-wr-darius-slayton-open-separation-route-running-brian-daboll-mike-kafka
TLDR: does anyone have access to TGT Sep (target separation) for our receiving core? Not just the “open score” which seems to take into account other metrics.

I did this for the Chiefs last year so thought I'd do it for the rest of the NFL this year. NFC is completely filled out and ready; AFC has some filled out and will be completed after the Bengals vs. Bills Week 17 game on MNF.
To make filters, hit "data," "filter views," and "create new temporary filter view." Personally, I prefer downloading as an excel sheet and using it that way, but to each their own.
There are also tabs with win probabilities from fivethirtyeight.com to find the "most likely" scenarios. H/T to u/mtkaiser for showing me how to do that last year.
Enjoy! Let me know if anything looks off or incorrect.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KTUZlPXhhth0rJYQQhrxGbfEwAfq8SLLwAgECQW3KGI/edit#gid=683893993

According to 538's Elo ratings, the Bengals currently sit at 1669, fourth in the league and just three points shy of the high water mark of 1672 set in 2015 following our 8-0 start. Looking at typical gains for individual wins, we would surely surpass that mark if we defeat Buffalo next Monday. My guess is a win over Baltimore would do the trick even following a loss to Buffalo, but it would depend on point differentials.
For reference, the ratings are calibrated such that an average NFL team has a rating of 1500. An expansion team is default-set to 1300, and the best teams of all time hang out in the high 1700s. Home field advantage is worth about 65 Elo points.
The Bengals' all-time low point was week 11 in 1999. We were rated an embarrassing 1239. Prior to the Marvin Lewis era, our highest rating was 1666 following our victory over San Diego in the Freezer Bowl, just before losing Super Bowl XVI to the 49ers.
Elo rewards short-term success and medium-term consistency, as it is a constantly updating baseline that changes weekly due to wins and losses, margin of victory, and strength of opponent. It is far from a deep-dive into predictive quality, but it's about as good an objective benchmark as there is publicly available, completely free from the stain of personal bias.
So what does this mean? It means that right now is about as good a time as there's ever been to be a Bengals fan. WHO DEY!

	Team	SN	Y!	B/R	CBS	USA	NFL	ESPN		Avg	SD	538	CGPR
1	Philadelphia	1	1	4	1	1	2	2		1.7	1.1	1	2
2	Buffalo	2	2	1	2	5	3	3		2.6	1.3	2	1
3	Kansas City	3	3	3	3	3	5	1		3.0	1.2	3	5
4	San Francisco	4	4	5	5	4	1	4		3.9	1.3	6	4
5	Cincinnati	6	6	2	4	2	4	6		4.3	1.8	4	3
6	Dallas	5	5	6	7	6	6	5		5.7	0.8	5	6
7	Minnesota	7	7	7	6	7	7	7		6.9	0.4	7	7
8	Baltimore	8	8	9	8	8	10	8		8.4	0.8	8	8
9	LA Chargers	9	9	8	9	9	8	9		8.7	0.5	10	10
10	Miami	10	11	10	10	11	13	11		10.9	1.1	15	18
11	Jacksonville	12	10	12	13	10	9	12		11.1	1.5	9	9
12	NY Giants	11	12	11	11	12	14	10		11.6	1.3	13	16
13	Detroit	15	13	13	18	14	11	13		13.9	2.2	16	11
14	Washington	13	17	15	12	16	16	14		14.7	1.8	18	14
15	Green Bay	18	14	14	19	17	12	15		15.6	2.5	14	13
16	NY Jets	21	16	18	17	15	15	16		16.9	2.1	22	22
17	New England	20	15	20	23	13	18	20		18.4	3.4	17	21
18	Pittsburgh	19	18	19	20	18	17	18		18.4	1.0	23	12
19	Tampa Bay	14	21	16	16	20	20	22		18.4	3.0	11	23
20	Seattle	17	20	17	15	22	22	17		18.6	2.8	20	24
21	Tennessee	16	19	22	14	23	24	19		19.6	3.7	19	26
22	Carolina	22	22	21	21	19	19	21		20.7	1.3	12	20
23	New Orleans	23	24	23	24	21	23	23		23.0	1.0	21	17
24	Las Vegas	24	25	25	22	26	21	24		23.9	1.8	24	19
25	Cleveland	25	23	24	25	24	26	26		24.7	1.1	25	15
26	LA Rams	26	27	26	29	25	25	25		26.1	1.5	26	25
27	Atlanta	27	26	27	26	27	28	27		26.9	0.7	31	27
28	Indianapolis	28	28	29	28	30	31	28		28.9	1.2	27	30
29	Chicago	31	29	28	30	28	29	29		29.1	1.1	29	31
30	Arizona	29	31	30	27	31	30	30		29.7	1.4	30	29
31	Houston	32	32	31	31	29	27	31		30.4	1.8	32	32
32	Denver	30	30	32	32	32	32	32		31.4	1.0	28	28

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Your Buffalo Bills have won the AFC East for the THIRD consecutive season!
As is tradition the format of these posts shifts at the end of the season. Next week will be the “So, you want to play the…” edition, unless the Bills clinch the #1 Seed this week. This week will be the “So, the Bills get Seed…”. More information will be provided below but know that the remaining “Rooting Interest” posts will operate differently than their predecessors. With that out of the way I present the seventeenth and penultimate iteration of 2022’s “Buffalo Bills Rooting Interests”! These posts are intended to provide Bills Mafia with rationale behind who they should root for in every game in every week of the NFL regular season. Included is the Game Importance Scale which rates from 👏 (Least Important) to 👏👏👏👏👏 (Most Important). The final edition of this year’s post will be posted next Tuesday by 9:00AM ET.
Note: Ties are not considered in descriptive discussion below.

Week #16 Review

The Bills needed only one thing this week, to clinch the AFC East. They could accomplish this through a Bills win or Dolphins loss and they just so happened to get each. Meanwhile, there were a few things the Bills wanted, and they got none of them. The Chiefs, Bengals, and Ravens all won their respective games keeping the margin for error low for the Bills. The remainder of the season is about seeding, and while the #1 seed is the primary goal there are ways to assure the Bills at least get the #2 seed.
Rooting Interests Record: 92-103 (LW 5-9)
Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -36 (LW -9 👏)

CLINCHING SCENARIOS

• AFC #1 Seed: BUF Win and KC Loss
• At least the AFC #2 Seed: BUF Win

How will this week’s “Rooting Interests” work?

The Bills are now locked into the #1, #2, or #3 seed meaning the classic form of this post is of little value to Bills Mafia. That is causing some changes as we are shifting into the “So, the Bills get Seed…” format. Below you will find 3 separate sections covering the scenarios for each seed, an overview of what that seed would mean, and possible opponents for the subsequent playoff round. Next week the format will shift again into the “So, you want to play the…” which will break down each possible opponent in detail to provide some background on how you may want to root in specific games. For those of you looking for the classic “Rooting Interest” post there is an abbreviated version at the end that focuses on assuring the Bills the best seeding possible while simultaneously reducing the draft stock of AFC teams.
The remaining schedules for the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, and Ravens are important to remember for the following sections:

• Bills: @ Bengals, vs. Patriots
• Chiefs: vs. Broncos, @ Raiders
• Bengals: vs. Bills, vs. Ravens
• Ravens: vs. Steelers, @ Bengals

So, the Bills get Seed #1.

Scenarios:

• BUF 2 Wins
• BUF 1 Loss (vs. NE) & KC 1+ Loss & CIN 1+ Loss
• BUF 1 Loss (@ CIN) & KC 1+ Loss & CIN 1 Loss
• BUF 2 Losses & KC 2 Losses & CIN 1 Loss & BAL 2 Wins

Overview: This is clearly the optimal path for the Bills and one they have been tracking towards since 2020. In the Josh Allen era, the Bills are 3-0 in home playoff games and 0-3 in away playoff games marking home field advantage as a key to their postseason success. Getting the #1 Seed means Buffalo would be just 2 wins shy of their first Superbowl appearance since 1993, 2 wins they would have the chance to get at home. Possibly just as important is the provided Bye Week to a team which has been decimated by injuries this season. Time to rest up before the Bills host the lowest remaining seed which likely is the winner of the AFC South (#4) versus the Chargers or AFC North 2nd Place Finisher (#5).
Possible Round #2 Opponents (Lowest Remaining Seed): BAL, CIN, JAX, LAC, LVR, MIA, NE, NYJ, PIT, TEN

So, the Bills get Seed #2.

Scenarios:

• BUF 1 Loss & KC 2 Wins & CIN 1 Loss
• BUF 1 Loss & KC 1+ Loss & CIN 2 Wins
• BUF 2 Losses & KC 2 Losses & CIN 2 Wins
• BUF 2 Losses & KC 2 Losses & CIN 1 Loss & BAL 1 Loss

Overview: While not as optimal as the #1 Seed there is reason to remain optimistic if the Bills lock down the #2 Seed. For one, they are assured at least the opportunity for 2 home playoff games, and the chance at 3. More importantly though is that in Round #1 they likely will face a significantly inferior opponent. With 10 AFC teams still in contention for a Wildcard spot, the Bills could see 7 of them if this outcome comes to fruition. Each of those teams (See below) would head to Buffalo as steep underdogs, for good reason. This Bills squad is built to win in the playoffs and though we must beware of the old saying, “Any Given Sunday (or Saturday)” the assumption is the Bills should take care of business in at least the first 2 rounds if granted the #2 seed.
Possible Round #1 Opponents (#7 Seed): JAX, LAC, LVR, MIA, NE, NYJ, PIT

So, the Bills get Seed #3.

Scenarios:

• BUF 1 Loss & KC 2 Wins & CIN 2 Wins
• BUF 2 Losses & KC 1+ Wins & CIN 1 Win & BAL 1 Loss

Overview: Considering where the Bills were just a few years ago the fact that with 2 weeks left in the season the worst they can finish is the #3 Seed, is astounding. That being said, it would be a major let down for Buffalo to drop to the #3 Seed setting up a scenario where they may get only 1 home playoff game this postseason. The Bills can avoid this outcome by winning on Monday night however, there are other paths to this seed. Regardless of which path they take if they end up here there are only 3 teams they could play, 2 of which they have already beaten.
Possible Round #1 Opponents (#6 Seed): BAL, LAC, MIA

Abbreviated Classic “Rooting Interests” Post

Cowboys (11-4) @ Titans (7-8) (Thursday 8:15PM)
Optimal Outcome: Titans 👏
Cardinals (4-11) @ Falcons (5-10) (Sunday 1:00PM)
Optimal Outcome: Falcons 👏
Bears (3-12) @ Lions (7-8) (Sunday 1:00PM)
Optimal Outcome: Lions 👏
Broncos (4-11) @ Chiefs (12-3) (Sunday 1:00PM)
Optimal Outcome: Broncos 👏👏👏👏
Dolphins (8-7) @ Patriots (7-8) (Sunday 1:00PM)
Optimal Outcome: Patriots 👏
Colts (4-10-1) @ Giants (8-6-1) (Sunday 1:00PM)
Optimal Outcome: Colts 👏
Saints (6-9) @ Eagles (13-2) (Sunday 1:00PM)
Optimal Outcome: Eagles 👏
Panthers (6-9) @ Buccaneers (7-8) (Sunday 1:00PM)
Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers 👏
Browns (6-9) @ Commanders (7-7-1) (Sunday 1:00PM)
Optimal Outcome: Browns 👏
Jaguars (7-8) @ Texans (2-12-1) (Sunday 1:00PM)
Optimal Outcome: Texans 👏
49ers (11-4) @ Raiders (6-9) (Sunday 4:05PM)
Optimal Outcome: Raiders 👏
Jets (7-8) @ Seahawks (7-8) (Sunday 4:05PM)
Optimal Outcome: Jets 👏
Vikings (12-3) @ Packers (7-8) (Sunday 4:25PM)
Optimal Outcome: Vikings 👏
Rams (5-10) @ Chargers (9-6) (Sunday 4:25PM)
Optimal Outcome: Chargers 👏
Steelers (7-8) @ Ravens (10-5) (Sunday 8:20PM)
Optimal Outcome: Ravens 👏👏👏 (Ravens winning provides Buffalo a path to the #1 seed at 12-5)
Bills (12-3) @ Bengals (11-4) (Monday 8:30PM)
Optimal Outcome: Bills 👏👏👏👏👏

Optimal Standings

If all the above games were to go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings (All tiebreakers considered).

1. Bills (13-3)**
2. Chiefs (12-4)**
3. Ravens (11-5, H2H Win over Bengals)**
4. Titans (8-8)**
5. Bengals (11-5, H2H Loss to Ravens)*
6. Chargers (10-6)*
7. Patriots (8-8, .750 H2H)*
8. Jets (8-8, .333 H2H, H2H Win over Dolphins)
9. Dolphins (8-8, .333 H2H, H2H Win over Jets)
10. Jaguars (7-9, 6-4 WLC)
11. Raiders (7-9, 5-6 WLC)^
12. Browns (7-9, H2H Win over Steelers, 4-7 WLC)^
13. Steelers (7-9, H2H Loss to Browns)^
14. Colts (5-10-1)^
15. Broncos (5-11)^
16. Texans (3-12-1)^

** Division Leader * Wildcard ^ Eliminated
Using FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Predictor if all games go the optimal route, then the Bills chances at the following are:

• Make Playoffs: 100% (+0%)
• Win Division: 100% (+0%)
• 1st-Round Bye: 100% (+53%)
• Win Super Bowl: 32% (+12%)

On one hand, I really would hate for someone else, anyone, to get injured in a game that doesn't make a difference to us winning the division, essentially.
However, after this past weekend there are a few scenarios in which the Jaguars could get in as a Wildcard regardless of tonight's game. The Chargers losing tonight would only improve those chances, of course, but I don't count on that happening. Still, there ARE scenarios where the Jags could make a Wildcard run if they beat Houston. Beating Houston would also make it so that we'd win division with a tie vs Titans if they somehow beat Dallas.
Okay, I know, I've been playing with https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/ way too much. But I haven't been able to play with it for 5 years.
What do you think? Will Doug rest starters vs Houston? Would you rather he did or let them ride momentum into week 18 vs the Titans?

• GB over MIA
• CAR over DET
• MIN over NYG
• KC over SEA
• SF over WAS

End result (per fivethirtyeight):

Chance of	Dec 23	Dec 25
GB makes playoffs	8%	27%
...if they win out	68%	90%

The broadcasters and Shannahan said yesterday they were battling for the #2/3 seed, but the #1 i still in play
Niners need to win out, Eagles need to lose out and Vikings need to lose 1 of 2 .
Eagles play NO and NYG at home. Hurts might be out next week and Giants might be playing for a playoff spot .
Vikings play @GB and @CHI- divisional games are never easy
Niners play @LV and ARI
You can play around with scenarios here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/

Welcome to week 15 of the official NFL Power Rankings! To everybody dealing with blizzard conditions, stay safe and stay warm. It's the wonderful time of year where Saturday games bless our screens, snowfall graces our stadiums, and playoff pictures solidify. Five teams clinched and more were eliminated, but we're here to give you a who's who of which teams actually deserve it. The Bengals and Jaguars respective 17-point comebacks were dwarfed by the Vikings, but nobody knows Minnesota only scored 36 second half points to balance their point differential. The Texans punched above their weight, which isn't hard to do, but it was just to balance out Texas and Dak Regresscot's stone-handed receivers. How many more ways can the referees ruin the integrity of the game? Discuss. 30/32 reporting

#		Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.		Eagles	--	13-1	AJ Brown will still be dominant for as long as it takes for Hurts to heal.
2.		Bills	--	11-3	What a game. What a beautiful, crazy football game. It feels like almost every time there’s been one of these shootouts this year, the Bills have been involved. The lack of snow during the game was a little disappointing, but didn’t the weather almost seem scripted? All we heard about all week was the snow, then the game starts and…nothing. Nothing coming down. And the teams went back-and-forth, trading blows in the cold, everyone waiting on the flakes to start flying. Then, in the last few minutes, the snow starts coming down, and here comes Josh Allen. It was a great finish to a very fun game. And with that win, the Bills have now made the playoffs four years in a row, and in five of their last six seasons —all on the heels of their 17 year drought. What a time to be a Bills fan.
3.		Chiefs	--	11-3	That was an all around almost disaster. The problem of the season, and it is a problem that is getting worse, is the inability of the Chiefs defense to do, well, anything. While some calls definitely went against them in this game it is hard to ignore that they were poor against a paultry Texans squad without some key offensive players. The Texans go ahead touchdown was the Texans first conversion on 3rd and 11 for the entire year. That is not playoff defense. It sucks that the Chiefs defense might be too much to overcome this year because Patrick Mahomes is having his best year as a pro. Mahomes ended the game with 20 straight completions and finished the game with the highest completion percentage of any QB in NFL history with 40+ attempts. His MVP march continues, and the Chiefs need him to deliver every single week right now in the home stretch.
4.		49ers	+2	10-4	With a win over the Seahawks on Thursday, the 49ers clinch their first division title since 2019. Now the winners of 7 in a row, they return home to face a Commanders team fighting for their playoff lives. With the 2 seed and its playoff homefield still up for grabs, the game still holds importance to a team looking to start a rookie QB in the playoffs.
5.		Bengals	--	10-4	The Bengals have now run their win streak to six games. They can clinch a playoff spot with a Jets loss on Thursday to the suddenly hot Jaguars, or with a win Sunday over the recently humiliated Patriots. Things will get tougher as the Bengals are a bit banged up at cornerback and defensive end, but their defense has been playing well as of late as a unit despite some key pieces missing. The Patriots are still a dangerous team and the Bengals need to make sure they don't catch themselves looking ahead to the big matchup next week against the Bills.
6.		Cowboys	-2	10-4	Man, I am glad I passed on the opportunity to fly to Duval for this game. Injuries on the defense are finally starting to catch up, and apparently there is only one receiver we can trust to catch the goddamn ball if Dak puts it right on his hands. If we can get CB2 figured out or at least functional, this is still a team that checks all the right boxes for a successful playoff team, but shit's going downhill at just the wrong time.
7.		Vikings	--	11-3	Down 33-0 at halftime, Patrick Peterson tried to rally the Vikings, exhorting them that "We just need five touchdowns." Kirk Cousins thought he was joking. But this season has shown you can never count this team out — not with Justin Jefferson sending pro bowl CBs to the shadow realm, not with KJ Osborn willing his way to 157 yards, not with Dalvin Cook making an entire defense miss, not with Christian Darrisaw putting the fear of God into defenders. The second-half defense forced two turnovers and allowed just 11 yards per drive, overcoming the refs spuriously overturning two fumble-recovery TDs. To win the division off of largest comeback in NFL history was, as Eric Kendricks put it while in tears in a post-game interview, "a beautiful moment. ...I'm never going to forget this." Neither will the fans.
8.		Dolphins	--	8-6	There are no moral victories in the NFL but if there were, I feel like we'd be 1-0 after Saturday night's game. Going into the game against the Bills, most expected a massive Bills blowout. The Dolphins are falling apart, their offense looked "figured out", Tua can't play in the cold, those were just a couple reasons why this game was not expected to be competitive. Instead of a blowout, we gave the Bills all they could handle. Raheem Mostert ran for 136 yards, nobody could keep up with Tyreek and Waddle down the field, Tua had a solid game, and our defensive front was harrassing Josh Allen. We ended up losing the game 29-32, but this game gave us the confidence that we can hang with any team in this league, and we certainly don't have any issues playing in the cold. We're going to need a similar performance next week as we face off against a dangerous Packers team that is fighting for their playoff life. Oh yeah, lol Pats.
9.		Chargers	+2	8-6	The game vs the Titans was the NFL version of the Larry David gif. On one hand, the Chargers took care of business in what on paper was the hardest remaining game on their schedule. On the other hand, a team that is firmly in the playoff mix needed a last-minute drive to put away a Titans team held together by scotch tape by the end of the game. Then on one hand, the Chargers' depleted defense finds itself in the midst of the best stretch of play of Staley's tenure. But on the other hand, a suddenly healthy offense struggled to put up 17 points on 12 drives against a bad defense missing many starters. If the Chargers can pull off a win against the Jeff Saturday Colts on Monday Night Football, they'll almost certainly be a playoff team. Now the question remains: can they start playing like a playoff team?
10.		Lions	+4	7-7	On the road, after an emotional division game, in the cold, against a defense playing lights out. This is a game previous incarnations of the Lions would have lost. Instead, they built up a small lead, protected it, and got it right back as soon as they gave it away, and they continued to make at least one fewer critical mistake than their opponent. This is exactly the kind of game Detroit needed to have, and to win, in order to grow as players and as a team. Regardless of what happens the rest of the way - playoffs or no, winning season or no (and I think "yes" to both of those) - this young team has done a historic job of battling back from starting 1-6 to now be .500, and they ain't done yet. Next step? Getting used to these high expectations, both for the rest of this season, and all of next.
11.		Ravens	-2	9-5	200 yards rushing and 3 points. Yikes. Not long until his contract expires.
12.		Giants	+5	8-5-1	Well, it wasn't pretty... but the Giants won their most important game of the year. It's always interesting to see which form of Daniel Jones will win out, between the gigachad demigod that is Daniel Jones vs the Commanders, and the lost puppy that is Daniel Jones in Primetime. This game, especially towards the end, was marred by a slew of bad calls; however, I don't think that should take away from any of the individual performances we saw on Sunday night. Specifically, Kayvon Thibodeaux had his game of the year, and was simply living in Washington's backfield all night. It was great to see from a player we saw coming really close to that breakout level of play the last few weeks. Next up: the battle of teams that simply love to win by one score - it's Minnesota vs New York!
13.		Jets	-3	7-7	Zach Wilson has got to be one of the most frustrating players in the history of the NFL. The arm talent is obvious. Zach had some truly incredibly throws against the Lions. Out of structure, rolling out of the pocket... he can throw a deep ball with the best of them. But when it comes to the routine passes that keep an offense in rhythm, he sucks. Wilson's stats against the Lions look ok. He threw for 2 TDs, 318 yards, and 9.1 YPA. But trust this: He left 100 yards on the field. His inaccuracy was the biggest reason the Jets lost the game. Wilson simply does not pass the eye test on simple intermediate throws. He's just too inconsistent to be counted on as the answer at QB. The Jets would be headed to the playoffs if Saleh made the switch to Mike White sooner, or if White stayed healthy. At this point, it's looking like they have to win their last three to get there. Jets fans are not optimistic.
14.		Commanders	+1	7-6-1	Washington had two weeks to prepare for the rematch against NY while NY was out being pummeled against Philly and somehow they came out flat for their biggest game of the season. Going 0-3 against The Giants, The Refs and themselves has their playoff hopes reeling. Washington has turned things around after a 1-4 start but proved on Sunday that they’re not quite ready for prime time. NY did everything Washington wanted to do but better and now with a road trip to San Fransisco on Christmas Eve they are hanging very precariously onto that 7th seed… their best bet may be needing to win out but as I mentioned above, they travel to San Fransisco next week. And if NY was able to do everything Washington wanted to do but better, wait till you see what San Fransisco has in store.
15.		Seahawks	-3	7-7	Update: The Seahawks are not a great team. Defense is a disaster. Tyler Lockett broke his finger. Geno has cooled. It's been a hell of a ride, but it may be winding down. Playoff hopes are still alive, but Seattle's in a much worse spot than they were and have dropped 4 out of their last 5 games. On the bright side, they only have to travel to Kansas City this week and stifle Patrick Mahomes.
16.		Titans	-3	7-7	The Titans lost on Sunday to make it 4 losses in a row. This is the first time that Mike Vrabel has ever lost 4 in a row and the first time the Titans have since 2015. With poor o-line play, a lack of talent at WR and an injured QB the offense could not put together enough consistent drives to outpace a Chargers offense that scored 17 points.
17.		Jaguars	+2	6-8	Ohhhh, now you've done it. Now you've fudged the bucket and told me too many words to know. Now you've given us hope. Now you've proven that you can run with the big kids. That you can pull it out against capable teams when death the game is on the line. This writer will accept nothing less than a Jags/Lions superb owl, which will be automatically assumed to be a catastrophe. At the very least, winning out to claim the division seems to be a very real possibility. I've been waiting to use this. Meow, meow!
18.		Patriots	-2	7-7	Well that’s pretty much it then. The embers of hope for this season were stoked when Pats came from behind to take a touchdown lead late in the 4th. Then the refs created an imaginary touchdown to tie it up, and the Pats botched the situational football of the final 30 seconds in legendary fashion to complete the collapse. Now the fire is gone. While there is a mathematical chance, there is no reason to believe this team is going to elevate against sturdier competition. There are a lot of reasons for 2023 hope with the roster situation and the salary cap available. The challenge will be the media frenzy from the outside putting pressure on Kraft to meddle and take away Bill’s authority. My position is that Bill deserves one more year to take advantage of the window he’s created. If it doesn’t come together for at least a playoff win next year, then it’s hard to imagine Bill has much left in him.
19.		Packers	+1	6-8	https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBxMPqxJGqI
20.		Browns	+1	6-8	Our division and this team makes no sense. Watson finally threw a TD. Chubb was more or less stopped. We've got about a 1% chance of making the playoffs. SoYoureTellingMeTheresAChance.mpeg
21.		Buccaneers	-3	6-8	There are two issues at play as the division leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers approach the final home stretch of the season. Number one- Todd Bowles' players have quit on him. Plain and simple. They've now lost 3 out of 4 games since the bye week and continue to play hapless, incompetent football. Issue number two-- Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich simply cannot contend with the brighter coaching minds of the NFL. It seems this coaching staff has a "Plan A" and once that "Plan A" gets figured out, there's no Plan B. Early leads for the Bucs are almost always a surefire sign of an opponent comeback. And now, with both the Panthers and Falcons nipping at the team's playoff heels, the unthinkable has happened in the NFC South: Tom Brady might actually miss a playoff to [checks notes] Steve Wilks, Sam Darnold, or Desmond Ridder.
22.		Raiders	--	6-8	The Raiders tried their best to blow another 13+ point halftime lead. They essentially handed the games to the Patriots. The Patriots, luckily, want to lose as many games as they can so they have ample reasons to move on from Mac Jones. Playoff hopes are somehow still alive, but fan hopes are long dead at this point. As is tradition with the fans at this point, we're just waiting for next season, because that is the season it finally all comes together.
23.		Steelers	+1	6-8	The key to an accurate Trubisky outing? 0 targets to Pat Freiermuth. Insiders reported that in pre-game warmups, Trubisky stared lovingly into his eyes for 5 minutes until he got it out of his system. Big brain move: can't intercept Trubisky's locked-in throws to Freiermuth if he doesn't look at him! The Panthers were clearly flummoxed because they bet their entire defense on that and Trubs didn't even check him out. Coming up on Christmas Eve is the big 50th Anniversary matchup vs the Raiders and the Immaculate Reception. The Steelers have been getting ready for this game for the past couple of weeks by throwing for less in 200 yards like it's the 1970s all over again. Even leaning on an RB named Harris. Just trying to find some positives here. The only shot at the playoffs is basically running the table and the Chargers having a complete meltdown and going 0-3. Instead, just enjoy what will likely be a nice trip down memory lane with an old rival.
24.		Saints	+2	5-9	3 touchdowns was what propelled the Saints ahead of the Falcons and completed a season sweep in an otherwise below par 2022. The NFC South door is remarkably wide open for the taking with the Buccaneers the only chance to finish with a winning record.
25.		Panthers	-2	5-9	I really don't know what else to say about this season that hasn't already been said. There's nothing that I can creatively write that compares to the genius of u/Alex_Demote. There's nothing that would shock and surprise you, because, honestly?, this season has been such a clusterfuck of poor football across the board, that it's just another blurb lost in the shuffle of mediocre play. We're 30th in 3rd Down Conversion %. We give up almost six 3rd Down Conversions to the opposing team every game. Our offense consists of running the ball with D'onta Foreman and praying that the defense doesn't do anything about it. Yet, somehow, there's a fluff article every week about how Steve Wilks should return as head coach of the Carolina Panthers. Even if we are Kings of Trash Mountain and win this garbage division from the Tampa Bay Greybeards, I'm not sure there's any reason to celebrate. As soon as we limp into the playoffs, Dallas is going to obliterate us in a "2003-Playoffs-Quincy-Carter" Revenge Game.
26.		Falcons	-1	5-9	Hey guys, glad to be back this week sharing my expertise. Much like the babies of Baby Geniuses (B59C 0823) or Look Who's Talking (L58H 1614), Arthur Smith is a genius with a plan. Arthur is drawing up many entertaining games, and it's no surprise at this point he's still in the mix for Lombardi. If anyone had paid attention to the film they'd know the Falcons wouldn't win on Sunday. Smith alluded to this back in week one, after giving up a 16-point deficit and losing to New Orleans, when he said "You guys wrote our obituary back in May, and continue to write our obituary. Who cares? We got 16 games." All the Bondheads and master codebreakers out there will understand the answer is always in the numbers, but let me spell it out for everyone else. 16 points, 16 games, 16 weeks. The Falcons had never planned on winning week 15. The Mariota drama, the Pitts injury, the London fumbles? All clever misdirects, like in Houdini (1953), used to add suspense and drama. Much like the Hobbit, he wants the season to feel like a journey. That's exactly what a good coach is supposed to do, script plays and script entertainment. It's also why Atlanta's playoff hopes didn't change, another sign of good coaching. Ridder hoisting Lombardi in February will cap a true five bagger of a season. Five bags and a red suit with grass stains, like the one Arthur Blank will wear standing on the field, watching Atlanta hold the lead.
27.		Bears	+1	3-11	The Bears, with a heavily depleted offensive roster, managed to fight the NFC-leading Eagles hard for the whole game. That's the type of culture and effort you want to see in a rebuilding team. They also managed to mostly avoid major injury. Fields dazzled again, and if he averages 69 rushing yards/game the rest of the way he can set a nice record for single-season rushing by a quarterback. Outside of that, there's not a ton left to play for except player development and the chance to mess with NFC North rivals' playoff spots.
28.		Rams	-1	4-10	With the season officially over, attention moves to 2023. With Matt Stafford's 2023 return confirmed, the big question is whether the struggles this season have truly been due to injuries or if the team is due for a significant overhaul.
29.		Broncos	+2	4-10	Day 5 of the flu - I didn't watch the game. I tried to but I fell asleep in the first quarter. I've written this blurb three or four times and each iteration is trash. I'm writing this one at 4:42am as a way to distract from the sandpaper cough and razorblade sneeze that have periodically ripped me awake. A couple quick thoughts about football; there is no way for me to enjoy a Broncos game without emancipating myself from the protective enclosure of cynicism that shields me from emotional damage. I refuse to acknowledge any amount of excitement that this consolation prize of a game could have elicited within me had I been able to watch it live. It is not healthy to feel joy. When I blow my nose, my equilibrium is disrupted to the point that I'm temporarily lost in vertigo. I'll leave you with this incomprehensible slurry of language that oozed out of me during a misguided writing session which occurred in some time-dislocated pocket of my fight with this virus. It isn't good and I share it only to illustrate how deep into the sickness mines I am. Context, my wife told me the broncos scored 24 points: 24 hours wasted of my week off but I don't have time for a long day. 24 points that I think we can get cheaper when we get home. 24 coughing fits and to be honest with you I can't get up. 24 cups of ice please. 24 bitter honey drippings slow the throat combustion engine. 24 pointless tries to write the blurb. See you next week.
30.		Colts	--	4-9-1	When I first started learning about NFL lore, I was constantly mesmerized by the Bills' comeback in the 1992 Wild Card game. I always thought to myself, ""How could a team blow a 32-point lead? That's impossible."" It did not seem like something of that caliber would ever happen again. I mean, after all, it would take a really shitty team fluking their way into a massive lead. Even then, they would just need to run the ball and burn clock. Yeah. They would most likely win that game, huh? Fuck this shit. I'll say this, and despite how it might come across, I don't mean it condescendingly: the Vikings played a real good game. The Vikings are a good team, with a good coach and a good quarterback and plenty of elite players. Coming back from a 33-point deficit is unbelievable no matter who you're playing. You made NFL history in the clutch. Hopefully the Colts' future draft pick can brush this memory aside.
31.		Cardinals	-2	4-10	Rise and shine, Mister Keim. Rise and… shine. Not that I… wish to imply you have been sleeping on the job. No one is more deserving of a rest… and all the effort in the world would have gone to waste until… well, let’s just say your hour has… come again. The right man in the wrong place can make all the difference in the world. So, wake up, Mister Keim. Wake up and… smell the ashes…
32.		Texans	--	1-12-1	In the hit feel-good show "This Is Us" the family's Steelers fandom is a touchstone for the fictional Pearson family. It's a common ground they can return to, even when conflict pulls them apart. While it's fictional, I do feel like the generational fandom of many families is something that provides them common ground. All over the world, there are those who support a side because "it was my father's team". My son is now four years-old, the age where some of the memories he forms now will stay with him forever. This is the age where if I were to get him to sit and watch football with me, it'd likely be something we'd have together for the rest of my life. But I won't be passing that on, how can I do that in good conscience? And so we won't have that common ground, and I mourn the loss of a thing that will never be. We'll find other things to bond over, other common ground to share, but I wonder now how many parents are passing on their NFL fandom to their children? How many mothers and fathers will look at the NFL and say "this is something I want our family to support"? I imagine it's rarer now than it was a generation ago. Fewer parents are letting their kids play football, and that can't help but translate into fewer kids caring about the sport. Maybe this is the apogee of the NFL's arc, and for the rest of our collective days we'll see a sport in decline. We'll reminisce about the Brady days, where the greatest to play the game played the game at its highest point. Or maybe not, only time will tell. But it'll be without me, and without my son.