This post summarizes my analysis of Lyft.
I hope you enjoy reading it and feel free to add your take and agree/disagree with what's mentioned below.
​
The post is divided into the following sections:

• Introduction
• Historical financial performance
• The balance sheet
• The main problem
• Assumptions & valuation
• Valuation based on assumptions different than mine

​
Introduction
Those who are in the US are for sure familiar with Lyft. How I'd describe it in one sentence, is "Uber's little brother".
It offers a ride-sharing marketplace, but also vehicles for hire, motorized scooters, bicycle sharing, and other services related to transportation.
The company became public back in March 2019, which means within 4 years, its share price got a significant haircut (down almost 90%). The market cap is close to $4 billion.
​
Historical financial performance
One thing that is in common for most companies that have gone public is:
- They have a big story that grabs the attention of the investors (and makes them feel that if they don't invest, they'd be missing out)
- They have had a good financial performance for the last few years
Lyft was no different. Take a look at the revenue growth prior to the IPO:
2017 - 209%
2018 - 103% (reaching almost $2.2 billion in revenue)
What can one expect from a such high-growth company in the future? Probably something comparable, right? Well, between 2018 and 2022, the revenue grew at CAGR ("Compounded annual growth rate") of 17%. Here's the breakdown:
2019 - 68% (Still good!)
2020 - negative 35% (due COVID-19)
2021 - 36%
2022 - 28% (reaching almost $4.1 billion in revenue)
Of course, we can point to COVID-19 for the disruption of revenue growth, but the average analysts' forecast is 10% revenue growth in the coming years.
So we have a company that started with a big growth story which is no longer there.
To make things a bit worse, the gross margin of 40% isn't sufficient to cover the operating expenses that are close to double the gross margin. This means Lyft needs to cut its operating expenses in half only to break even. Are they making progress on that topic? Let's take a look at the operating expenses as % of revenue in 2018 (prior to the IPO and COVID-19) and 2022:
Operations and support: Decreased from 16% 11%
Research and development: Increased from 14% 21%
Sales & Marketing: Decreased from 37% 13%
General & Administrative: Increased from 21% 31%
Total: Decreased from 88% to 76%
This seems all over the place, some expenses are better managed, others a bit worse. Again, as mentioned above, they need to reduce to 40% only for Lyft to break even.
The company is yet to find its way to profitability and for the year 2022, its operating margin was -36%. From its operations, Lyft was losing over $1bn/year! For comparison, its market cap is under $4 billion now.
Of course, this is where share-based compensation comes into play. A big chunk of the operating expenses, related to the employees and the management was paid in shares. In fact, since 2018, the # of shares outstanding has increased by 32%! If we use the share price back at the time when these shares were earned, that amounts to $3.5 billion only in the last 4 years.
The # of shares outstanding has been increasing between 5% and 10% every year!
If the employees and the management do not believe in Lyft, they're going to sell these shares, which brings the price down even more.
If we adjust for this non-cash expense, Lyft is losing around $300 million from its operations.
​
The balance sheet
One of the questions that always arise in money-losing companies is "Is this company going bankrupt?".
I don't think this is likely to happen in the next few years. Lyft has cash, cash equivalents, and short-term and long-term investments of over $2.8 billion, while the total debt (including leases) is around $1 billion. This net cash position is sufficient to sustain the losses for quite some time.
​
The main problem
We have a company that is struggling to find its path to profitability and doesn't have huge growth ahead. So what can the management do? Oh yes, a LOYALTY program! This is oftentimes the proposed solution to such a problem for a company that is in a competitive environment. But this actually highlights the real problem within the ride-sharing industry.
There's absolutely no stickiness. If I put myself in the shoes of a customer or a driver, why would I use Lyft (or Uber) if another company offers better prices? There's nothing stopping customers or drivers to switch from one company to the other at moment.
Yes, a loyalty program sounds good, but it isn't free. Any discount would lead to retaining customers, but it also means less revenue for the company. Ultimately, Lyft would be the one paying that price, which doesn't help its journey to profitability.
​
Assumptions and valuation
For anyone that doesn't see a company becoming profitable, well, there makes no sense to go through the exercise of running a DCF valuation. I am going to run this exercise as there are always readers with different views than mine. I'll start with one scenario:

1. Revenue: Growing at 10% for the next 5 years, then declining to 3% by year 10 (This leads to revenue doubling in 10 years time)
2. Operating margin: Break-even at year 5, increasing to 8% by year 10
3. Discount rate: 11.61% Reducing to 9.94% as time goes by and the company becomes profitable

After adjusting for everything that's on the balance sheet as well as the outstanding equity options, the outcome is close to $1.8 billion ($4.7/share)
This is roughly half of the current market cap of $3.8 billion ($10.60/share).
​
Valuation based on assumptions different than mine
Let's take a look at how the valuation changes if we use different assumptions (also, under which assumptions the company is fairly valued today).
Below is a table that shows the fair value per share, based on different assumptions related to the revenue 10 years from now as well as the operating margin.
​

Revenue / Operating margin	6%	8%	10%	12%
75% ($7.2b)	$3.4	$4.6	$5.9	$6.9
100% ($8.2b)	$3.3	$4.7	$6.0	$7.7
150% ($10.2b)	$3.2	$4.7	$7.0	$9.7
200% (12.3b)	$2.6	$5.4	$8.2	$11.4

At today's share price of roughly $10.60/share, to be fairly valued, Lyft needs to grow its revenue by 150-200% in 10 years' time and reach an operating margin of 12%.
The big story that evolves around autonomous driving and the idea that Lyft will be able to capitalize on that is still there. However, they're not the only company that is aiming at that. It's not only its big brother Uber as well. There's Tesla, other car manufacturers, and Apple/Amazon are always there to jump at an opportunity.
If you prefer to watch/listen to my analysis or just support my work, consider checking the video:
https://youtu.be/GSuRKIW1DK8
​
As always, thank you for reading the posts, and until next week for the next valuation.

This post summarizes my analysis of Lyft.
I hope you enjoy reading it and feel free to add your take and agree/disagree with what's mentioned below.
​
The post is divided into the following sections:

• Introduction
• Historical financial performance
• The balance sheet
• The main problem
• Assumptions & valuation
• Valuation based on assumptions different than mine

​
Introduction
Those who are in the US are for sure familiar with Lyft. How I'd describe it in one sentence, is "Uber's little brother".
It offers a ride-sharing marketplace, but also vehicles for hire, motorized scooters, bicycle sharing, and other services related to transportation.
The company became public back in March 2019, which means within 4 years, its share price got a significant haircut (down almost 90%). The market cap is close to $4 billion.
​
Historical financial performance
One thing that is in common for most companies that have gone public is:
- They have a big story that grabs the attention of the investors (and makes them feel that if they don't invest, they'd be missing out)
- They have had a good financial performance for the last few years
Lyft was no different. Take a look at the revenue growth prior to the IPO:
2017 - 209%
2018 - 103% (reaching almost $2.2 billion in revenue)
What can one expect from a such high-growth company in the future? Probably something comparable, right? Well, between 2018 and 2022, the revenue grew at CAGR ("Compounded annual growth rate") of 17%. Here's the breakdown:
2019 - 68% (Still good!)
2020 - negative 35% (due COVID-19)
2021 - 36%
2022 - 28% (reaching almost $4.1 billion in revenue)
Of course, we can point to COVID-19 for the disruption of revenue growth, but the average analysts' forecast is 10% revenue growth in the coming years.
So we have a company that started with a big growth story which is no longer there.
To make things a bit worse, the gross margin of 40% isn't sufficient to cover the operating expenses that are close to double the gross margin. This means Lyft needs to cut its operating expenses in half only to break even. Are they making progress on that topic? Let's take a look at the operating expenses as % of revenue in 2018 (prior to the IPO and COVID-19) and 2022:
Operations and support: Decreased from 16% 11%
Research and development: Increased from 14% 21%
Sales & Marketing: Decreased from 37% 13%
General & Administrative: Increased from 21% 31%
Total: Decreased from 88% to 76%
This seems all over the place, some expenses are better managed, others a bit worse. Again, as mentioned above, they need to reduce to 40% only for Lyft to break even.
The company is yet to find its way to profitability and for the year 2022, its operating margin was -36%. From its operations, Lyft was losing over $1bn/year! For comparison, its market cap is under $4 billion now.
Of course, this is where share-based compensation comes into play. A big chunk of the operating expenses, related to the employees and the management was paid in shares. In fact, since 2018, the # of shares outstanding has increased by 32%! If we use the share price back at the time when these shares were earned, that amounts to $3.5 billion only in the last 4 years.
The # of shares outstanding has been increasing between 5% and 10% every year!
If the employees and the management do not believe in Lyft, they're going to sell these shares, which brings the price down even more.
If we adjust for this non-cash expense, Lyft is losing around $300 million from its operations.
​
The balance sheet
One of the questions that always arise in money-losing companies is "Is this company going bankrupt?".
I don't think this is likely to happen in the next few years. Lyft has cash, cash equivalents, and short-term and long-term investments of over $2.8 billion, while the total debt (including leases) is around $1 billion. This net cash position is sufficient to sustain the losses for quite some time.
​
The main problem
We have a company that is struggling to find its path to profitability and doesn't have huge growth ahead. So what can the management do? Oh yes, a LOYALTY program! This is oftentimes the proposed solution to such a problem for a company that is in a competitive environment. But this actually highlights the real problem within the ride-sharing industry.
There's absolutely no stickiness. If I put myself in the shoes of a customer or a driver, why would I use Lyft (or Uber) if another company offers better prices? There's nothing stopping customers or drivers to switch from one company to the other at moment.
Yes, a loyalty program sounds good, but it isn't free. Any discount would lead to retaining customers, but it also means less revenue for the company. Ultimately, Lyft would be the one paying that price, which doesn't help its journey to profitability.
​
Assumptions and valuation
For anyone that doesn't see a company becoming profitable, well, there makes no sense to go through the exercise of running a DCF valuation. I am going to run this exercise as there are always readers with different views than mine. I'll start with one scenario:

1. Revenue: Growing at 10% for the next 5 years, then declining to 3% by year 10 (This leads to revenue doubling in 10 years time)
2. Operating margin: Break-even at year 5, increasing to 8% by year 10
3. Discount rate: 11.61% Reducing to 9.94% as time goes by and the company becomes profitable

After adjusting for everything that's on the balance sheet as well as the outstanding equity options, the outcome is close to $1.8 billion ($4.7/share)
This is roughly half of the current market cap of $3.8 billion ($10.60/share).
​
Valuation based on assumptions different than mine
Let's take a look at how the valuation changes if we use different assumptions (also, under which assumptions the company is fairly valued today).
Below is a table that shows the fair value per share, based on different assumptions related to the revenue 10 years from now as well as the operating margin.
​

Revenue / Operating margin	6%	8%	10%	12%
75% ($7.2b)	$3.4	$4.6	$5.9	$6.9
100% ($8.2b)	$3.3	$4.7	$6.0	$7.7
150% ($10.2b)	$3.2	$4.7	$7.0	$9.7
200% (12.3b)	$2.6	$5.4	$8.2	$11.4

At today's share price of roughly $10.60/share, to be fairly valued, Lyft needs to grow its revenue by 150-200% in 10 years' time and reach an operating margin of 12%.
The big story that evolves around autonomous driving and the idea that Lyft will be able to capitalize on that is still there. However, they're not the only company that is aiming at that. It's not only its big brother Uber as well. There's Tesla, other car manufacturers, and Apple/Amazon are always there to jump at an opportunity.
As always, thank you for reading the posts, and until next week for the next valuation.

ception Score (IS) [8]. Additionally, we analyze the diversity and stability of the generated samples.
4.1 Implementation Details
We implement our CASS-GAN using PyTorch [9]. For the generator and discriminator networks, we use convolutional layers with spectral normalization [10] and batch normalization [11]. We employ the hinge version of the adversarial loss [12] for the GAN objective. For the self-supervised learning task, we use the cross-entropy loss. We train our models using the Adam optimizer [13] with a learning rate of 0.0002 and beta values of (0.5, 0.999). The weight of the self-supervised learning objective, $\lambda$, is set to 1.
4.2 Results and Discussion
Our experimental results show that the proposed CASS-GAN outperforms the state-of-the-art GAN models on the benchmark datasets. CASS-GAN achieves lower FID scores and higher IS values, indicating that the generated samples are of higher quality and diversity. The conditional attention mechanisms provide the networks with better feature representations and improve the training stability, as evidenced by the reduced training oscillations observed in the learning curves.
Furthermore, the incorporation of self-supervised learning enhances the generalization capabilities of the model. The auxiliary rotation prediction task encourages the networks to capture meaningful and invariant features from the data, contributing to the improved performance. The results also demonstrate the robustness of the proposed architecture to hyperparameter choices, indicating that the CASS-GAN is less sensitive to hyperparameter tuning compared to traditional GAN models.

1. Conclusion

In this paper, we proposed a novel GAN architecture, CASS-GAN, which incorporates conditional attention mechanisms and self-supervised learning to address the limitations of traditional GANs. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed architecture outperforms state-of-the-art GAN models in terms of sample quality, diversity, and stability. The conditional attention mechanisms stabilize the training dynamics, while the self-supervised learning approach enhances the generalization capabilities of the networks.
Future work includes exploring other self-supervised learning tasks, investigating the applicability of the proposed architecture to other generative modeling problems, and extending the conditional attention mechanisms to handle more complex conditioning information.
References
[1] Goodfellow, I., Pouget-Abadie, J., Mirza, M., Xu, B., Warde-Farley, D., Ozair, S., Courville, A., & Bengio, Y. (2014). Generative Adversarial Networks. arXiv:1406.2661.
[2] Radford, A., Metz, L., & Chintala, S. (2015). Unsupervised Representation Learning with Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Networks. arXiv:1511.06434.
[3] Arjovsky, M., Chintala, S., & Bottou, L. (2017). Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks. arXiv:1701.07875.
[4] Mao, X., Li, Q., Xie, H., Lau, R. Y. K., Wang, Z., & Smolley, S. P. (2017). Least Squares Generative Adversarial Networks. arXiv:1611.04076.
[5] Zhang, H., Goodfellow, I., Metaxas, D., & Odena, A. (2019). Self-Attention Generative Adversarial Networks. arXiv:1805.08318.
[6] Gidaris, S., Singh, P., & Komodakis, N. (2018). Unsupervised Representation Learning by Predicting Image Rotations. arXiv:1803.07728.
[7] Heusel, M., Ramsauer, H., Unterthiner, T., Nessler, B., & Hochreiter, S. (2017). GANs Trained by a Two Time-Scale Update Rule Converge to a Local Nash Equilibrium. arXiv:1706.08500.
[8] Salimans, T., Goodfellow, I., Zaremba, W., Cheung, V., Radford, A., & Chen, X. (2016). Improved Techniques for Training GANs. arXiv:1606.03498.
[9] Paszke, A., Gross, S., Massa, F., Lerer, A., Bradbury, J., Chanan, G., ... & Chintala, S. (2019). PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library. arXiv:1912.01703.
[10] Miyato, T., Kataoka, T., Koyama, M., & Yoshida, Y. (2018). Spectral Normalization for Generative Adversarial Networks.

Part 1
Okay so… a lot has happened.
After I left the restaurant, I had a nice calm early night walk back to my house. I didn't notice anything different or off on my way back. I didn't feel that anyone was following or watching. When I got back inside my home, I looked out the living room window. I watched for any sign that someone had followed me. No cars pulled up. Not one person walked by. I assumed I was in the clear.
When I got back into my room, I went back to my usual business. Moments after I settled back into my routine, I heard a knock on the door. When I answered it, I saw a man who looked just like me.
"Hey," she asked. "How are you doing?"
"I'm good, how are you?" I asked.
"I'm great. I'm here because… I know you," she said. "I don't know if you'll believe me, but I'm you from a different universe. Of course, I can't just say that without evidence."
She pointed a small white device at the wall beside her, then she pressed a big button. A bright white ripple opened on the wall. She pressed the button again, then the ripple folded up until it vanished.
I was surprised, but also excited. This person could jump realities as well.
"Yeah, I can do that too," I said.
"Oh… yeah? That's cool," she said, sounding slightly sarcastic. I didn't mind as I used to exaggerate my voice to make up for an irrational worry I had of coming off as insincere. "I've always wanted to actually talk to myself from an alternate reality. I've been ignoring all of them just to focus on the details of their realities. Can I come in?"
He sounded quite happy to see me. I recalled the mess with the first alternate self I spoke to. This alternate self didn't seem so bad, promising enough.
I let her in. She stepped into the room and looked around. She then told me the room wasn't so different from her room in her home reality, which she told me was one where the Moon was half its size compared to what it was here. She then told me she brought a couple friends along.
"You might find them familiar," she continued.
I wasn't too sure who to expect, but I didn't think it would be anyone I was super familiar with. She gestured at the door. Two people, a guy and a girl with blond hair who looked to be in their early 20s, walked into the room. Looking back, I can, to my displeasure, say they were familiar. I don't want to get into who they were. It's hard to process. We greeted each other, then the guy looked at my device.
"You travel to different realities too?" The guy with blond hair asked with enthusiasm.
"Yeah," I said, smiling. "I've done it a lot. It's very fun and very interesting."
"Can I look at the device you use to travel?" he asked.
"It's probably not so different from the one she uses," I said, gesturing to my alternate self.
"We wanna see it," the girl said. "Come on. Maybe it's cool in its own design."
I pulled the device out of my pocket and handed it to the guy with blond hair. He grabbed it and looked it over with wide eyes. The girl leaned in towards it and looked at it as well. Once he was done looking at it, he handed it over to my alternate self, who then gave me a smirk. She looked at both her friends.
"Do it," she said.
Both her friends walked up to me and grabbed me by the shoulders. They held me up against the wall and stood by my sides while my alternate self walked over to me.
"I've been chasing after you for three years," she said. Her smile was gone. Her facial expression turned to one of determination.
"Wait…" I muttered.
"You're a thief," she said. "You took my device and fled what I had planned for you. You need to be put away for a while."
It was her. I did take her device and I for sure fled to another reality with it, but I had to.
"You wanted to frame me for no reason," I said. "I still don't completely understand why."
"You don't need to know why," she said.
"Leave me alone," I said. "You could be in any other reality right now," I said.
"I don't want another reality," she said. "I want my home reality."
"Couldn't you just go back there right now?" I asked.
She chuckled. "You have no idea, do you? My home reality was ravaged by a disease called Encephalitis Lethargica. It was a big deal in the 1920s, then it returned in 2020 and messed everything up."
"I think I-i've heard of that before," I said, attempting to stall the conversation.
"It went under the radar in your realities and, like, never returned," she said. "As I said, in my reality, it returned and now I can't risk going back."
"How big of a deal was it?"
"It was huge," she said. "People fell into sleep-like catatonic states that lasted weeks. Many times they lasted months. Sometimes they lasted up to a year. I avoided catching it and got out of there."
"How did you even get back there at all?" I asked.
"In my home reality, society knew the locations of a bunch of slips that would lead you to different realities," she said. "But they were shielded off by the government in case people tried to enter them and ended up in some dangerous chaotic place. Most of the public never knew exactly where those slips led, but they knew the locations of them. When you ditched me in your reality, I looked for ways to get into one of them. Once I found a way, I went through a whole bunch of slips until I found a reality advanced enough for multiversal travel. That was back in 2019. I got my hands on a device, then I went on my long journey to find you, using my home reality as a base until the virus came. Is that enough information for you?"
"I bet you got hit in the face with inevitability when traveling to all those realities," I said.
"I ended up in a whole bunch of different places," she said. "Yes, I realized just how inevitable certain things can be, even if some details are different."
"How did you find out which reality I was in?" I asked.
"I jumped to every reality I assumed you'd visit," she said. "Even those random TV and movie related ones. I'm you, and while I'm embarrassed to be you, at least being you left a trail for me to follow."
She stepped towards me, wide eyed and chuckling like a hungry psycho.
"The Bubonic Plague hit 500 years later, nuclear winter in the 90s, it's the year 2090 or 3005 or 1998… whatever," she said. "I traveled to over 3000 realities, Nicole. 3000. My brain hurts. I don't feel like I exist anymore, and worst of all, I can't process my feelings very well. I don't want to get to the rest. You probably know what I mean about processing feelings. I'll just skip to the point."
She pointed her device towards me and pressed the big button. With her left hand, she took a small remote out of her left pocket. It was light brown and had a similar design to the reality jumping device she was holding in her right hand. She threw the device towards the blond guy. It landed on the floor, right in front of him.
"Crush it," alternate me said. "I don't need that limited crap."
I looked at the device and watched as the blond guy stomped on it with his right foot. He stomped on it again and again and again until it splintered into a dozen pieces. I could see the chips, which snapped and were pressed against a shiny white disk as the guy stomped again and again some more. He stopped. Now there's only one reality jumping device, and my crazed alternate self of all people has to be the one to have it for some reason.
"You two," alternate me said, gesturing towards her friends. "Send her in."
Her friends let go of me.
"Where are you sending me?" I asked.
"A place where you won't die immediately," she said. "So you can be in constant fear of dying."
My alternate self's friends pushed me backwards. My view of them and everything else was obscured by the white light. A second later, the light disappeared. I was sitting on the floor in my room. My alternate self and her friends were gone. I stood up and glanced around. Nobody was in the room.
Where did she send me? What did she mean by constant fear of dying?
I peeked out the window, assuming I'd see what my alternate self was talking about. The sky was cloudy and it was kinda dark considering it was around 7 PM… but that was it.
I stepped into the living room. No one was in there. I checked every room. Nobody. I was alone.
It began to sink in that she took my reality jumping device before pushing me into a different reality. Whatever was going on here, I wouldn't be able to escape it like I was able to escape feral humans, invasive machines, wild animals, and nuclear war. My heart sank.
I was hesitant to check the news. What was I going to see? What was I going to… experience?
I went to pull my phone out of my pocket, only to remember I had set it down on my bed before I got up to answer the door for my alternate self. My phone was still in my home reality.
I walked back up to my room and meditated while waiting for a sign of what was going to happen to me. When I got to my room, I looked out the window again. Still nothing. No one was outside. I hadn't heard a single car drive by while I was looking for people around the house. I sat down on my bed, shaking.
I wanted to believe my alternate self was kidding. Did she say she was sending me to a dangerous reality just to scare me? It's not something I'd do at my worst. She was mad at me though… and she was a version of me, and I remember how insecure I was back when I began to traverse to different realities. She sent me somewhere… but where?
At some point, I decided checking the news would be better than not being prepared. Hopefully, the disaster or whatever it could be is something I could prepare for and protect myself against.
I walked into the living room and switched the TV on. The channel that came on was CNN.
"...they reported a black chemical substance being sprayed in the distance. This flood of refugees from the northeastern China anti-communication bubble…"
"...these attacks have been going on for seven days now. The world is still shocked. We're without a doubt feeling a little more shocked each day at this point…"
"...So far, the confirmed death toll currently sits at around 85,900,000, but it's evident the actual death toll may be a lot higher…"
My heart sank further hearing those things, even without knowing exactly what caused them. I listened for more information.
Aside from the fact it was apparently August 2022 in this reality, not March 2023, this is what I learned from the news reporters, mostly through their recaps of the event as it had gone on so far.
On August 8th, a giant creature appeared in a small Canadian suburb named Sharon. It destroyed dozens of buildings and laid waste to the elementary school there. Luckily, no one was in it at the time, but many were still in their houses of course. They showed the giant on TV while recapping this. It was chilling to the bone. It had a reptile-like body with a dozen long appendages close to its head. Its head was made up of 5 upside down black pyramids stacked on top of each other. I had never seen anything like it before. I was overwhelmed with dread. Their monstrous appearance and size, the amount of destruction it could do if it wanted to… were chilling.
Afterwards, two more giants appeared in Newmarket. They attacked the entirety of its Main Street from north to south, along with a southern portion of the town. Those two then went to Aurora, where they torched the central part of the town, turning it into a pile of ash, burnt rubble, and dead trees. The two appeared in Burlington a couple hours later, where they demolished the Burlington Skyway Bridge and blew up some nearby factories. Videos of each of these events were shown during the recap. The two giants were bigger than the Sharon one, but just as chilling in appearance. The two looked identical to each other, but one had a slightly larger head than the other, along with dozens of white tentacles coming off of its head.
A few hours after that, northeastern China was hit with a so-called Anti-Communication Bubble, or EMP Bubble as the general public has been calling it, which fried every electronic device in the area. Electronics brought into the area would be fried as well, mysteriously enough. Even military vehicles were fried, despite them being able to withstand a catastrophic EMP. The worst part of it is, according to satellite images, a couple groups of giants gassed half of the cities and towns within the bubble with an unknown black chemical substance. The most chilling part is the witness accounts from refugees.
English translation: "I saw people running up the hill, just running for their lives, then a black dust covered them. It was a light dust. It was part of a chemical spray or something that these beings were spraying. I saw those people choke and fall to the ground. Luckily the wind wasn't blowing in my direction."
English translation: "Four gigantic beings were spraying something everywhere. I was far away from it, but I was told it killed things. I asked, what things? People? Animals? They told me it killed everything."
Anti-Communication Bubbles were then placed on Japan, North Korea, Moscow, and Toronto respectively within the following midnight, 1 AM, and 2 AM hours.
The attacks seemed coordinated, due to how specific they were. The reporters acknowledged that too. It seemed like the creatures were after specific people more so than important places, with China being an exception. The reporter mentioned the giants could be showing force by building up their destruction over time… Attacking in small amounts, then gradually larger amounts. On August 9th, the CIA and NSA buildings were destroyed one by one in under a minute. At that point, it was clear these things knew what they were doing. But their goal still wasn't clear. They attacked North Korea and Canada, so they weren't discriminating based on government type.
It was also mentioned Chechen and Iran were wiped off the map, an additional Anti-Communication Bubble was placed on Waterloo, Ontario specifically, despite the place not having any strategic importance (unless the theory the giants are building up their terror is true,) along with an attack on Central Manhattan as well that reportedly killed about 200,000 people.
If it didn't seem like just about anywhere could be hit, on August 12th, rural areas of Florida, Texas, Georgia, and Arizona were hit with Anti-Communication Bubbles. Two giants gassed each and every town within said bubbles. Urban Michigan was hit as well. Refugees who were in basements at the time of the gassing mentioned animals and people laying all over the place, people being dead in their cars, and Detroit being a practical ghost town. On August 13th, Wisconsin became the victim of the same attack.
I found it weird that they hit rural areas rather than the cities, aside from only Detroit of all places, New York, and DC, but as I let it sink in, I began to speculate… were they targeting specific people? if they were, was I one of them? I was told I wouldn't immediately die, but that's kinda vague. Alternate me was right about the fear though… the giant creatures could attack anywhere at any time… Do I leave the house in case it's attacked? Or will I be killed if I leave the house? I was frozen, shaking, and staring at the news. It was as if I was new to this alternate reality stuff. I really didn't want to be in this place.
A deep pit of hopeless dread filled my stomach. I had to sit down. I needed to catch my breath. Once I did, I stared at the news for another few hours before remembering the thing alternate me said about slips to different realities. I thought, maybe, I could find one and it would take me out of this terrifying place. But I had to be cautious. Those realities could be just as, if not more, dangerous than this one. Alternate me did mention inevitability, and this was a reality far from most neighboring realities I've been to. Going through slips might take me to more realities with giants than not… but that's just speculation. Willing to try anything to get out of here, I left the house, going out into the uncertain near-darkness of night, and walked down the road.
I had no idea where to look. I needed to find a slip, but it was ruthless. I was too scared to not look. There had to be one somewhere. I walked down multiple backroads, then east down Holland street. I felt like a conspiracy theorist.
After an hour of being east of the town, I needed to take a break. I sat down on the dirt and watched cars roll by. Their headlights illuminated the road as I thought about whether or not a giant creature was about to pop out of nowhere and torch or gass the place I was in.
Where might I be safe? It doesn't seem like there's a safe place anywhere. I could've made my life longer or shorter by walking outside. I was frozen, not knowing what to do or where to go.
"Nicole?" a familiar voice asked.
I looked to my right. A man who looked to be in his 40s was walking up to me. It was my Dad's friend, William.
"What are you doing all the way out here?" he asked.
"I'm… panicking," I stuttered. "I don't know where to go or what I'm doing… I don't know if I'm… going to… get hurt or not."
William asked me where my parents were. Realizing I didn't know what they would've done in the first week of the attacks, I told him I had no idea, and that I didn't feel safe in town. William offered for me to stay with him down in Niagara. I took the offer and he took me to his car, which was parked only meters away.
Am I going to be able to fall asleep tonight? All that anxiousness has been keeping me up. If I fall asleep, it won't be for long. I'll probably feel anxious in my dreams too.
The drive was smoother than I expected. It was mostly through forests and farmland until we got to a town named Lincoln at about 6 AM. Based on the music and news that played on the radio the entire way there, things didn't seem so different from our reality prior to the attacks. William told me he's been glued to his phone and the news since the attacks heated up.
When we got to the next town, which looked more like a small city, there were only like five streets I saw cars on. Most of the roads were empty.
When we got to the house, I climbed out of the car and followed William inside. I crashed on the couch and stared at the news, waiting for updates on the ongoing attacks.
There weren't any attacks anywhere that day, so things were pretty smooth. I was hoping it meant the attacks were over, but William didn't think so. The longer he sat beside me, the more he opened up.
"We don't know what these things are," he said. "We don't know where they came from… They could be planning anything. We don't know how long it will go on for. Where will they hit next? They've hit urban areas, suburban areas, rural areas… they could h-hit anywhere."
He was chill. Though his face alternated between being more or less flushed. He gave a thousand yard stare. He kept muttering to himself, asking himself what was happening. If any of it were even real. I had traveled to the most basic realities you could think of. One where the Cuban Missile Crisis turned into a third world war, the one where World War 3 was a current event in 2017, and one where Gray Goo Nanobots were eating up the world to the point no part of society could function.
While you may have seen these things play out before in movies or on TV, I was actually there. There is a certain terrifying edge to it. It was real. Real world physics applied. When I saw physics doing their thing, the weight of the situation crushed me even more. Yes, I could just leave, but I saw people in terrible conditions. Bloodied, beaten, scattered remains, incinerated dust. That stuff will haunt me forever as I WAS THERE. It was still weird to go back to a reality where everything was normal. Not just because of the chilling sights, but the fact apocalyptic things were happening in certain realities while things were just fine in others.
This reality was no different. While I witnessed bone chilling monstrosities in other realities, the ones in this reality were different. They were their own things. I decided to go surf the web to find out how different the alternate reality was.
Everything was the same. The wars that happened in this alternate reality played out the same way the ones in our own reality did. The disease outbreaks, the empires, the technological advances, the historical figures were all the same as well. It was weird. There was nothing I could find that clearly led up to the Giant Attacks, as they were dubbed. The giants came from someplace that had no clear effect on the history of the world at all. It was chilling to think one could be going about their day to day life, then some giant monstrosities just… pop up and attack.
One confusing thing was their plan. What was it? They attacked very specific areas. They first appeared in a tiny Canadian town nobody knows. Then they attack certain towns to the south, then they jump to darkening a chunk of China, THEN they jump down to attacking cities like Toronto or New York. While it seemed like they were hitting certain areas for strategic value, they were also hitting very specific areas. Was that part of the plan? Making an impression by attacking every walk of life makes sense, but is that really what they're doing? It was all theories… assumptions… It was unsettling to not know what they were going to do next.
The rest of the day was peaceful, aside from the anxious tension in the air. That night, I was thinking about where the safest places would be. It's not like they've attacked every place in the world, but what if they did? I wondered. I couldn't tell whether or not I was catastrophizing. Rural areas were off limits, suburban areas were off limits, cities were definitely off limits. Maybe mountains? Or very desolate areas? I thought. The stress kept me up for a good portion of the night.
The next morning, I awoke to the sound of the TV at a high volume. It sounded like the newscasters. They were saying something about a giant having attacked Afghanistan.
"It looked like the first one. The one that attacked Sharon and Beijing, a-and a few other places…"
"The attack lasted around an hour before the giant vanished…"
"I keep hoping they stop but they just keep going…"
As I woke up, I paid more attention to the news. When I got into the living room, I took a look at the TV. I couldn't believe what I was seeing. What was so important to the giant monstrosities?
As I got breakfast for myself, I couldn't help but peek at the TV for updates. They replayed footage from the attacks in Afghanistan, Serbia, Central Manhattan, and nearby in Toronto. The giant in Afghanistan smashed its way through the streets, killing more people than it destroyed buildings. The giant in Serbia and Central Manhattan were regular with their terrorist acts, but the giant in Toronto was filmed by helicopters miles away because of the EMP Bubble. Watching it still gave me chills, as the creature was pretty big and was about the height of the CN Tower.
I watched as it took down the business buildings behind the Rogers center, leaving plumes of smoke behind, then it stopped moving once it got to the west side of the CN Tower. It pushed the tower eastward, breaking it up into multiple pieces due to sheer force. The pieces of the tower fell to the ground, with the observation center landing on what I assumed was the Pwc building, creating a huge plume of smoke. More smoke rose from the neighboring buildings as pieces of the tower obliterated on impact with them.
I barely felt exhausted at this point. Gittery, anxious, and dread ridden were more like it. My alternate self brought me here to die. Although, I held out at least some hope that I could survive. But I couldn't shake the theory that he knew exactly where he sent me. He knew what was going to happen… or he at least had some idea. I needed to get out of here.
"Trying to think about how things were before feels weird," he said. "Everything looked so innocent."
Even though I had jumped right into the middle of this, I too felt that way. Even though it wasn't on the same scale, it was still quite bad. I conjured up something to say. I made it vague so as to not sound crazy.
"Y-yeah, it did," I said. "Even here… I don't know."
The feeling carried the rest of the day. Luckily, there were no huge developments. At one point, the newscasters openly expressed hope the attacks were done. It seemed that way by that night, then throughout the next morning. Both of which were calmer, despite the shock persisting.
At around 3 or 4 PM, he sat down on the couch, shaking. He had a terrified hopeless look in his eyes.
"There's another development," he said.
He picked up the remote.
I stepped into the living room. The first thing I did was look at the TV. As the volume went up, I stepped a bit closer to the TV.
"This is an image of a giant who appeared in Staten Island moments ago…" the reporter said.
They showed an image of the giant. It looked a lot like the others with the metallic looking bodies and dark pyramids.
"I thought they were done. We had a day of peace. It seemed like they were done, b-but… I mean, yeah, it's a miniature attack, but they're still here," the other reporter said.
It was a small attack. Specific to one place in Staten Island. It made me wonder what they were doing? Was it the giants saying they're still around? I found it weird they would only attack one specific spot. It wasn't so nerve wracking in itself, but it still reeked of a statement that they aren't done yet.
At about 5:30 PM, I got my answer. I was sitting beside William, eyes glued to the news when a report about an invisible force stopping people from driving in and out of an area of Niagara Region. My heart sank as I heard the initial report. They replayed traffic cam footage of cars driving down Queen Elizabeth Way slamming into nothing. The driver flung through his windshield. Other videos from other areas along the outskirts of the region were played, showing people driving into the invisible force, proving there's some sort of barrier around the outskirts of the region.
"Why us?" he asked. "They're going to do something to us?"
What were they going to do? Where were they going to hit? The invisible force was new based on all I had heard so far. I paced around with a knot in my stomach, not knowing what to do or where to go.
About a half an hour into thinking, loud booms echoed from somewhere in the distance outside. They were kinda rhythmic. They gave me chills. William opened the door and looked outside. While the door was open, I could hear multiple dogs barking. The booming noises got progressively louder as the moments went on. About ten minutes in, William spoke.
"Dear god…" he said. "Get your stuff. We're getting out of here."
"Where can we go since there's an invisible wall?" I asked.
"Anywhere the giants aren't," William said.
The things in the kitchen began to shake. I stepped outside. Spotting the car, I sprinted towards it. When I reached the door, I glanced at the source of the loud booms. In the distance was a giant moving across the horizon. It felt 10 times more colossal than it looked in photos and videos. I swung the passenger door open and climbed into the seat. A moment later, William ran out of the house. He put all his stuff in my lap and climbed into the driver's seat. He shook as he put the key into the ignition. He rushed the car backwards, turned it in the opposite direction, then he sped down the road.
As we navigated through the streets, I peeked out of the passenger side window. The giant was out of view, but people running out of their homes caught my attention. I stared out the front window. The booming noises pierced my ears as we sped down the road. But something else caught my attention. Something in the sky. I looked up at it to find it was a fighter jet. It flew out of view faster than I noticed it.
"We just need to get to Queen Elizabeth Way," William said. "Then we get off the highway and go to my friend's house in Caledonia."
It made sense. That town was in the middle of rural farmland. Though I felt as if it would be as likely to be attacked as ever considering the attacks began in some random tiny suburb.
My heart sank when I saw piles of rubble where the Queen Elizabeth highway was supposed to be. William steered the car left. We drove, searching for a way on. One of the streets led right up to it. We drove up it but the spot where the overpass was was a pile of rubble as well.
Loud booms were coming from the southeast and southwest. My heart was racing faster than we were able to move.
"We're screwed," William said. "There's a river to our left and right, a lake to our north and an invisible wall to our south."
The booms stopped. However, something popped up in the corner of my eye. I glanced to my right. Two giants were standing in the distance. Again… a lot more colossal than they looked in photos. Both of them were holding white-bag looking things. I wanted to look away, but I couldn't. I had to know what they were doing. It came at the cost of staring at chilling things. Things that could give me nightmares for years. After a minute or so of watching them, they both turned their bags upside down, letting a black substance pour out. It was like rain. The initial rain lasted a few seconds. When it ended, I was confused, and shivering. What was it? I needed to hear the news, so I turned the radio on.
"... a dark substance was just poured onto the city. It's unclear what it is from up here. It appears to be spreading… across the city. They look like tiny dots from up here… and it looks like there are hundreds of them. They're running down all of the roads…" the reporter said.
I made eye contact with William again. He turned the car around, then he sped down the road.
It sounded like an easy task to drive away, but we kept running into dead ends. According to William the city we were in was surrounded by a river. He hoped there would still be a bridge to cross to get away from whatever the giants poured onto the ground. The first bridge we drove up to was gone. My heart sank a bit, but I hoped that there was one bridge that was still intact. My heart sank further as I realized the giants likely destroyed every single bridge going in and out of the city. I figured it more so when we got to the next bridge, which was gone as well. The sight was horrific. A couple of cars at the bottom of the river, along with three people floating by. Drifting down the river. Their bodies being swept by the water.
It didn't help that we had the news on the radio playing.
"We're getting more details about the things running down streets all over the city. What we can see are animalistic creatures with long tentacles. The creatures are grabbing people with their tentacles, smashing through glass windows, and grabbing people through their windshields.
Live video footage taken by civilians and ground reporters who were reporting live on scene when the creatures were dumped have shown these horrific sights up close. These people were able to catch some footage of the creatures running around, but as soon as they caught one of the creatures attacking somebody with its tentacles, they ran. But seconds after they began to run, a creature could be seen swarming them. They fell to the ground. In the cases of live news reporting specifically, sometimes the reporter's camera fell to the ground and captured footage of a tentacle sucking on one of their legs. In other cases, the reporter could be seen being grabbed by all of the creature's tentacles at a time. One tentacle to the forehead, one tentacle to the heart… in every case, the reporter struggled and screamed."
The pit of dread in my stomach deepened to the point where I felt like puking. These creatures weren't dumped too far away from where we were earlier. This was insane.
William eventually drove onto a pathway surrounded by trees.
"A pathway?" I asked, confused. "Make sure you don't run people over."
"These parks are closed due to the attacks," William said. "But yes. I won't hit anybody. We just need to get away from this place. Every second counts here."
We drove for about 15 minutes in total by the time we got to the only land bridge. It didn't look very public, but the gate was open and alarms were going off. I couldn't see anybody around. William drove through the gate, then he drove along the pathway until reaching a road.
As we continued driving west, it was reported the invisible wall had been lifted. Creatures that got close to the outskirts of the region kept turning away. I was relieved for a good number of minutes until it was reported two giants had appeared in Bradford.
"Two giants have appeared in Bradford and are creating chaos…"
"A third giant has appeared in Bradford. It appears the giant is helping the other two attack the town, but it is carrying out its part of the attack in the northern part of the town…"
"A fourth giant has begun to destroy buildings in Bradford…"
"Social media is speculating why Bradford is an important target to the giants…"
Well… I'm glad I left that place… and if it didn't already seem like the giants could attack just about anywhere…
I had goosebumps.
At around 7:45 PM, we made it to William's friend's house. When we pulled into the driveway, the framed door swung open and a man ran out towards us. He looked about 40. William got out of the car. I followed and watched as William and Jason hugged each other. "I broke my phone, I couldn't call you," Jason cried. "I thought I was watching you die live on the news."
"I'm glad I made it here at all," William said. "All the bridges were out. I brought a friend along with me."
I waved at Jason as he and I locked eyes. We both said hi to each other, then we went inside.
"Shit is crazy out there," Jason said as we stepped into the living room. "I don't know if I'm supposed to leave or stay here."
"Where would we even go?" William said. He stopped himself from saying another word… three times. It was clear he didn't know what to say. I didn't know either. My adrenaline was rushing too much for me to think clearly.
There was a knock at the door. Jason stood up and went up to the door.
"Who could it be at this point?" he whispered out loud.
Hopefully it was some sort of emergency team…
"Nicole," he said. "It's for you."
I stepped up to the door. I didn't know her name, and I didn't care to ask, but I knew her. She was the girl my alternate self arrived with earlier.
"Meet me outside right now," she said, slamming her hands against the door frame.
My heart dropped. I told William she must be confusing me for someone else, then I stepped outside and shut the door behind me.
"Follow me," she said, sternly. "Real Nicole and Iann are here. We want to talk to you."
My heart began to pound as I followed her around to the side of the house. My alternate self and his two friends were standing still with stern looks on their faces.
"How's your stay been?" alternate me asked.
"I think you should bring me somewhere safe," I said. "I could actually die here. Are you actually serious about wanting me to die?"
"That's the point," alternate me said. "Did you hear the news about Bradford? Crushed to bits… I thought that would've given you a hint."
"Please," I said. "I'm sorry. Just let me go."
Alternate me chuckled. The blond woman and man exchanged looks while smiling at each other.
"You are staying here and you will get the hell over it," alternate me said.
"Can I at least message my original people and say goodbye?" I asked.
"Okay but only because you're saying goodbye," alternate me said. alternate me took out her portal device and pointed it beside me before pressing a button, opening the bright white portal. "These two are going to come with you. They'll make sure you don't run off, so don't try anything. They have guns. They won't be afraid to threaten you or pepper spray you if you don't follow."
The two blonds pulled handguns out of their pockets. My heart sank at the idea of being guarded like a prisoner. I stepped into the portal and noticed I was at the same location. I walked up to the sidewalk, hoping if I was going to be shot or pepper sprayed, somebody would see it. I glanced behind me. The two blonds stood beside the house. Their guns were only partially hanging out of their pockets. No one on the street would notice. They pulled out their phones, looking down at their screens, then back up at me for a few seconds. When somebody walked by, they looked back down at their screens.
I decided to use the time I got to type all this up. Yes, I am going to text my friends and family, tell them I loved them. But that will be after I hit submit. I don't know what the hell to do right now. If I type for too long, that man and woman will drag me back to hell. That's where I'm going after this anyway… so whatever. At least I had typed most of this stuff up in my notes before my alternate self arrived at Jason's house.
What the hell do I do?

From everything I'm reading about the Federal used vehicle tax credit, older Niros (both EV and PHEV) should be eligible for the credit.
"Qualified Vehicles and Sales To qualify, a vehicle must meet all of these requirements:
Have a sale price of $25,000 or less Have a model year at least 2 years earlier than the calendar year when you buy it. For example, a vehicle purchased in 2023 would need a model year of 2021 or older. Not have already been transferred after August 16, 2022, to a qualified buyer. Have a gross vehicle weight rating of less than 14,000 pounds Be an eligible FCV or plug-in EV with a battery capacity of least 7 kilowatt hours Be for use primarily in the United States"
However, the IRS site shows only
"This manufacturer has entered into a written agreement with us to become a "qualified manufacturer" but hasn't yet submitted a list of specific makes and models that are eligible. Please check back here for updated information."
https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/manufacturers-and-models-of-qualified-used-clean-vehicles
Most other manufacturers have updated their listings. Anyone know anything about Kia's plans here?